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DanArmak comments on Are we failing the ideological Turing test in the case of ISIS? (a crazy ideas thread) - Less Wrong Discussion
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Under those assumptions, it seems to be likely that their stated motivations and goals are the true ones. Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail, the likely reason for them trying anyway is religious (moral, etc).
Are they likely to fail? They are not going to fail unless the people who want them to fail (most of the world) make them fail. Being able to defeat them is not enough. They must actually be defeated. Is this going to happen?
Compare with startup founders. Most startups fail, yes? Therefore if every would-be startup founder is smart enough etc., then we don't get Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, ...
No-one ever won a war by wishing their enemies would recognise they can't win. ISIS have a cause for which they are not merely striving to become stronger or making an extraordinary effort, they are shutting up and doing the impossible.
"Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail"
Allah doesn't put his thumb on the scales?
If they think Allah is going to a lend a hand, they would feel certain of near term victory. If not, they likely would still feel certain of a long term victory.