buybuydandavis comments on Are we failing the ideological Turing test in the case of ISIS? (a crazy ideas thread) - Less Wrong Discussion
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Under those assumptions, it seems to be likely that their stated motivations and goals are the true ones. Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail, the likely reason for them trying anyway is religious (moral, etc).
"Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail"
Allah doesn't put his thumb on the scales?
If they think Allah is going to a lend a hand, they would feel certain of near term victory. If not, they likely would still feel certain of a long term victory.