You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

TheAncientGeek comments on Map:Territory::Uncertainty::Randomness – but that doesn’t matter, value of information does. - Less Wrong Discussion

6 Post author: Davidmanheim 22 January 2016 07:12PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (21)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: TheAncientGeek 24 January 2016 07:01:49PM -1 points [-]

Generally if you approach probability as an extension of logic, probability is always relative to some evidence/

Maybe, but so what? That doesn't establish any point of interest. It doesn't establish Bayes over Frequentisim, since frequentists still need evidence. And it doesn't establish subectivity over objectivty, because if there are objective probabilities, you still need evidence to know what they are.

The invalid argument I alluded to elsewhere in this thread is the argument that if there is subjective probability, based on limited information, then there is no objective probability.

So thinking probabilities existing as "things itself" taken to the extreme could lead one to the conclusion that one cant say much for example about single-case probabilities.

"Don't take objective probability to an extreme" is very different to "reject objective probability".