= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
TheAncientGeek comments on Map:Territory::Uncertainty::Randomness – but that doesn’t matter, value of information does. - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d){kind=logo}
Comments (21)
Generally if you approach probability as an extension of logic, probability is always relative to some evidence. Hardcore frequency dogmatists like John Venn for example thought that this is completely wrong: "the probability of an event is no more relative to something else than the area of a field is relative to something else."
So thinking probabilities existing as "things itself" taken to the extreme could lead one to the conclusion that one cant say much for example about single-case probabilities. Lets say I take HIV-test and it comes back positive. You dont find it weird to say that it is not OK to judge probabilities of me having the HIV based on that evidence?
Maybe, but so what? That doesn't establish any point of interest. It doesn't establish Bayes over Frequentisim, since frequentists still need evidence. And it doesn't establish subectivity over objectivty, because if there are objective probabilities, you still need evidence to know what they are.
The invalid argument I alluded to elsewhere in this thread is the argument that if there is subjective probability, based on limited information, then there is no objective probability.
"Don't take objective probability to an extreme" is very different to "reject objective probability".