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jacob_cannell comments on [Link] AlphaGo: Mastering the ancient game of Go with Machine Learning - Less Wrong Discussion
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If you were trying to predict the future of flight in 1900, you'd do pretty terrible by surveying experts. You would do far better by taking a Kurzweil style approach where you put combustion engine performance on a chart and compared it to estimates of the power/weight ratios required for flight.