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tukabel comments on Yoshua Bengio on AI progress, hype and risks - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'm afraid we will never know whether someone is "close" to (super)human AGI, unless this entity reveals it. Now think nuclear bomb... and superAGI is supposed to be orders of magnitude more powerful/dangerous.
So, not unlike the wartime disappearance of scientific articles on nuclear topics, certain (sudden?) lack of progress reporting press could be an indicator.