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paper-machine comments on Open Thread, Feb 8 - Feb 15, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion
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On the betting market PredictIt you can by a contract for 38 cents that pays $1 if the Democratic party doesn't win the next U.S. presidential election. This seems like an amazingly good bet. (I have 1158 shares) Do others who follow U.S. politics agree that the chance of the Democrats not winning the election is well above 38%?
I'd say the odds right now of either party winning are roughly 50-50.