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Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Open Thread, Feb 8 - Feb 15, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: Elo 08 February 2016 04:47AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 09 February 2016 05:08:27PM 0 points [-]

Seems like a problem that could be solved by making more bets.

The problem is not finding out "how good you actually are". The problem is that making the bet locks you into a particular state of mind which involves more bias and less updating on evidence.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 09 February 2016 08:43:11PM 1 point [-]

But still if you do a lot of small betting instead of few large there you have less chance to lock yourself in a hole.