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Dagon comments on Altruistic parenting - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (22)
The answers to the last three questions, especially if asked about the first child, are "We don't know".
The answers to all of them are probability estimates. "don't know" applies to all decisions, but isn't a helpful framing.
I would like to see a probability estimate for "Will the world be a better place for our having children?", for example, one that's based on some empirical realities and not on looking upwards and going "Hmmm...."
The outside view is certainly positive on the overall bundle: most humans choose to have children. Starting with that prior and adjustiing for heritability of IQ and social influence, it seems very likely that children of most LW readers will be net positive value.
It's not what you asked for, but it's sufficient to base decisions on.
That's just hardwired biological instincts. They have nothing to do with the questions asked.