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buybuydandavis comments on Estimating the probability of human extinction - Less Wrong Discussion
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You need to be clear about whether you're talking about the extinction of the human species, or the extinction of all descendants of the human species. Does death by Unfriendly AI count as extinction, or evolution?
I like that both Bostrom and Rees attached dates to their estimates, though Rees talked about a civilization destroying event, not an extinction event.
Human life is only a blink in the eye of that 3.5billion years. How much of those 3.5billion years would be compatible with human life? How many catastrophes have occurred in that time which would wipe us out today? Would wipe out civilization today?