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HungryHobo comments on If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (67)
That the statement "X causes Y" is almost meaningless without knowing how much.
Bread gives you cancer? Really? OH MY GOD! (small print, only 1 in a [huge number] chance)
But most people seem to only have 3 levels of belief about things.
"X does"," X does not", "X maybe does" and round them to 1,0 and 0.5 respectively.
You'll find yourself having conversations with these people along the lines of
Nutter:"You shouldn't let children do that! it causes cancer!"
You:"there's less than one in a million chance assuming they do this every day of their lives"
Nutter:"SEE! IT CAUSES CANCER! I KNEW IT! YOU MONSTER "
Most people are depressingly thick.