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Raiden comments on If there was one element of statistical literacy that you could magically implant in every head, what would it be? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (67)
Doesn't the word "ALL" make your statement self-contradictory?
My statement itself isn't something I believe with certainty, but adding that qualifier to everything I say would be a pointless hassle, especially for things that I believe with a near-enough certainty that my mind feels it is certain. The part with the "ALL" is itself a part of the statement I believe with near certainty, not a qualifier of the statement I believe. Sorry I didn't make that clearer.
OK, and appropriate when writing on LW. But I wonder if part of the reason most people don't think of "beliefs being probabilities on a continuum" is that even statistically literate people don't usually bother qualifying statements that if taken literally would mean they held some belief with probability 1.