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torekp comments on AIFoom Debate - conclusion? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Don't waste your time with the AI foom stuff. The commonly held opinion by experts that work with actual AI technology is that any sort of hard takeoffs will have timelines that are not small on human scales, at least with technology that exists today.
You need only do a few back of the envelope calculations using various AI techniques and AGI architectures to see that learning cycles are measured in hours or days, not milliseconds.
I suggest a different reason not to waste your time with the foom debate: even a non-fooming process may be unstoppable. Consider the institutions of the state and the corporation. Each was a long time coming. Each was hotly contested and had plenty of opponents, who failed to stop it or radically change it. Each changed human life in ways that are not obviously and uniformly for the better.