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James_Miller comments on Updating towards the simulation hypothesis because you think about AI - Less Wrong Discussion
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I had exactly the same insight as James_Miller a couple of days ago. Are you sure this is Grace's Doomsday argument? Her reasoning seems to be rather along the line that it is more likely that we'll be experiencing a late Great Filter (argued by SIA which I'm not familiar with). The idea here is rather that for life to likely exist for a prolonged time there has to be a late Great Filter (like space travel being extremely difficult or UFAI), because otherwise Paperclippers would quickly conquer the entire space (at least in universes like ours where all points in space can be travelled to in principle).
Yes, I now see the the difference: "where life develops and there is a great filter that destroy civilizations before paperclip maximizers get going."
But I understand it in the way that great filter is something that usually happens during tech development of a civilization before it creates AI. Like nuclear wars and bio catastrophes are so likely that no civilization survive until creation of strong AI.
It doesn't contradict Katja's version, which only claims that GF is in the future. It still in the future. https://meteuphoric.wordpress.com/2010/03/23/sia-doomsday-the-filter-is-ahead/