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SoerenMind comments on Updating towards the simulation hypothesis because you think about AI - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (21)
I agree this the main premises of this text.
That the fact that I am in special position should rise my estimation that I am in simulation. And that any AI would have (as instrumental goal) creation of millions of simulations to solve numerically Fermi paradox by modeling different civilizations near the time of global risks and to model different AI-goal systems near AI creation time.
But now I will try different type of reasoning which may be used against such logic. Let's consider following example: "Given that my name is Alex, what is the probability that my name is Alex?" Of course, 1.
Given that I am interested in AI, what is the probability that I know about simulation argument? Its high, almost 1. And given that I know about simulation argument, what is the probability that I think that I am in simulation - it is also high. So it is not surprising that I estimate it high, if i am already in this field.
The core of this objection is that not only you are special, but that everybody is special, yet in their own believe system. Like "Given that I believe in God Zeus, it makes Zeus more likely to be real". Because we have many people, and everybody think that their believe system is special, so there is nothing special in any believe system.
I am not sure that this line of reasoning cancels our conclusion that we may be inside simulation.
"The core of this objection is that not only you are special, but that everybody is special"
Is your point sort of the same thing I'm saying with this? "Everyone has some things in their life that are very exceptional by pure chance. I’m sure there’s some way to deal with this in statistics but I don’t know it."
Yes, I meant the same. But the fact that we near AI crowd could overweight that bias.