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Vaniver comments on AlphaGo versus Lee Sedol - Less Wrong Discussion
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Does anyone know the current odds being given of Lee Sedol winning any of the three remaining games against AlphaGo? I'm curious if at this point is AlphaGo likely possible to beat by a human player better than Sedol (assuming there are any) or if we're looking at an AI player that is better than a human can be.
The odds I saw for the second match were about 2:3 favoring AlphaGo; my guess is the odds moving forward will be more like 1:4 favoring AlphaGo (but probably it should be closer to something like 1:9).
This is my estimation.
Lee Sedol has now won the fourth game, which makes this very improbable. I still think AlphaGo is better than him, but this basically means that its competence can still be measured on a human scale.
Agreed that match 4 was a big surprise under my model (I thought it was about 1:20 favoring AlphaGo).