You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

jacob_cannell comments on Astrobiology, Astronomy, and the Fermi Paradox II: Space & Time Revisited - Less Wrong Discussion

23 Post author: CellBioGuy 10 March 2016 05:19AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (35)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: jacob_cannell 12 March 2016 05:17:05AM 0 points [-]

If planets like Earth were very rare in ways that didn't change much with time you'd still see a time that was typical

The time measurement is not the only rank measurement we have. We also can compare the sun vs other stars, and it is mediocre across measurements.

Rarity requires an (intrinsically unlikely, ala solomonoff) mechanism - something unusual that happened at some point in the developmental process, and most such mechanisms would entangle with multiple measurements.

At this point in time we can pretty much rule out all mechanisms operating at the stellar scale, it would have to be something far more local.

Tectonics as rare has been disproven recently. Europa was recently shown to have active tectonics, possibly pluto, and probably mars at least at some point.

For later evolutionary development stuff, it will be awhile before we have any data for rank measurements. But given how every other measurement so far has come up as mediocre . . ..

We can learn alot actually from exploring europa, mars, and other spots that could/should have some evidence for at least simple life. That can help fit at least a simple low complexity model for typical planetary development.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 16 March 2016 03:48:11PM *  0 points [-]

We can learn alot actually from exploring europa, mars, and other spots that could/should have some evidence for at least simple life. That can help fit at least a simple low complexity model for typical planetary development.

Dear gods yes. We are finally at the point where we can start asking the intelligent questions. We have learned so much about these places and about life on Earth that we forget how little we do know.