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The Civ 5 AI does cheat insofar as it doesn't have to deal with the fog of war, IIRC.
The XCOM AI seems to cheat because they've don't report the actual probability.
Not just that, especially on higher difficulty levels.
Right, I meant that Civ doesn't cheat when it comes to die rolls - e.g. if it displays a 75% chance for the player to win a battle, then the probability really is at least 75%.
It does cheat in a number of other ways.