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Douglas_Knight comments on Prediction challenge: Zika and birth rates - Less Wrong Discussion
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Not sure about prediction questions, but here's a tradeoff question: What are the downsides to wiping out mosquitoes as an anti-disease and anti-annoyance practice? Do they prey on something we kind of need? Distribute pollen? Do anything more useful than make going outside at certain times of year a no-go?
Yes, mosquitoes do pollinate and do feed larger animals.
But there are a lot of species of mosquitoes, even a lot of species that feed on humans. If we wipe out a particular species that feeds on humans, it will probably be replaced by another species that feeds on humans and the animals that eat them will adapt. Pollination is usually more specific.
Reducing annoyance means reducing the total population of mosquitoes that feed on humans, at least locally. That would have a bigger consequence for the species that feed on mosquitoes, though I don't know how big.