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pianoforte611 comments on The Thyroid Madness : Core Argument, Evidence, Probabilities and Predictions - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: johnlawrenceaspden 14 March 2016 01:41AM

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Comment author: pianoforte611 17 March 2016 02:20:04AM 1 point [-]

It seems I somewhat misunderstood your argument and misjudged you; I tentatively pegged you as a pig’s thyroid evangel feigning humility. I apologize. I also apologize because I am not the opponent you are looking for.

Since I apparently didn’t stress this enough, I will conclude by saying again that without interventional data, you have nothing. It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are, if it disagrees with experiment then its wrong. Repeating your hypothesis again and again, doesn’t help your case, it hurts your credibility. Unfortunately this is all I have to offer that I think is worth offering at this point.

Comment author: Lumifer 17 March 2016 03:16:54PM 1 point [-]

without interventional data, you have nothing

That is not true. You would prefer to have data from randomized intervention trials, but even without them you can look and collect data and come to conclusions.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 17 March 2016 02:42:48PM *  0 points [-]

My dear old thing! That is a perfectly natural assumption to make and there is no need to apologise. If I were convinced of the truth of this idea, that is likely exactly what I would be, here practising the argument before I have to make it as a wild-haired prophet.

But I think I have managed to retain enough sanity to not want to believe it if it's not true. And I have pretty high standards for truth, and they definitely include intervention, cause, randomisation, placebos and control.

At the moment, I think that my hypotheses are probably false (because there is no way that I can see that it can be a widespread problem and yet fibro-turks are hot)

If it's false, then I think it's probably important to refute it properly if only to stop Wilson.

But I don't care very much about that. My own problems seem to be gone, they are or were probably either non-existent or horribly idiosyncratic and no one can help me with them, and I am just going to have to work it out on my own. That's a man's death and I am glad to have found a worthwhile enemy.

But I disagree with you about beautiful hypotheses. If they disagree with experiment then they are wrong, no question.

But they are worth looking at carefully, and a science that does not bother is not a science. And probably not truth-finding, even over the long run.

If you run into any interested opponents, do tell them there is someone wrong on the internet. There is still a mystery to explain! It's just back to being a hobby, for me.