And possibly the simple ideas which look true are the shadows of the more complicated truth.

And possibly they are the only path to the truths which we can find.

The puzzle in science is not really 'the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics'.

It is 'the unreasonable effectiveness of simple ideas'.

And the puzzle, as you say, is that there have always been simple ideas to lead us to the more complicated ideas.

But as you point out, that may well have a simple explanation.