Well, pretty much by definition you'll do well following the mostly correct ideas. And when things go wrong, you'll have produced exactly the sort of surprise that (gets physicists/should get anyone who calls themselves a scientist) to say 'Oooh, that's interesting'.

So if you're lazy, go with the obvious (the world is flat), and only trouble yourself to think if you're (a) curious or (b) confounded by your bad anticipations.

Generally speaking 'What the wise ones say is (likely) true' is not a bad heuristic if you don't have the time or reason to be interested.