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Lumifer comments on [Link] Op-Ed on Brussels Attacks - Less Wrong Discussion

-6 Post author: Gleb_Tsipursky 02 April 2016 05:38PM

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Tags: politics bias attention intentionalinsights wordspreading raisingsanitywaterline rationality

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Comment author: Lumifer 04 April 2016 02:37:05PM *  3 points [-]

Well, now we have at least two options

Imagine something is wrong with your leg. You come to a doctor and tell him about the weird pains in your leg, and how it cramps up occasionally, etc. The doctor thinks for a moment and says: Well, now we have at least two options, (1) cut off your leg, and (2) do nothing. Would you feed that was a reasonable approach to the situation?

I hope you don't think that the problem of dealing with a subversive movement is new. Ruling elites had to figure out what to do about them since time immemorial with regular successes and regular failures. There is no universal answer, never mind a simplistic one. Treating them with kid gloves has been tried (ask the Germans how well did that work with respect to the brown shirts), treating them harshly has been tried (ask the Romans how well did feeding Christians to the lions work). It's complicated.

I am not going to develop a strategy for fighting islamists here, but I strongly suspect that a successful strategy would have the following attributes:

  • Not expressible in a single sentence. Or a single paragraph.
  • Has many parts, in particular both carrots and sticks
  • Changes with time, specifically in response to feedback
  • Somewhat localized -- the US solutions are unlikely to be exactly like the European solutions.
  • Is patient and doesn't expect to fix everything in a month

Why do you expect trivially simple solutions to complex problems?

Comment author: Viliam 06 April 2016 07:57:42AM 0 points [-]

I expect that in order to solve any complex problem, there must be an actionable first step. Otherwise, the problem is likely to get unsolved. (Unless some solution appears randomly in the future.)

In this situation, as the first step I would probably try to establish an organization aimed at reducing islamic terrorism. Maybe just a department within some existing secret service.

Maybe it already happened.

Saying "it's difficult" may be perfectly true, but doesn't bring us any closer to solving the problem.

Comment author: Lumifer 06 April 2016 02:45:33PM *  0 points [-]

I expect that in order to solve any complex problem, there must be an actionable first step.

Sure. Usually it should be "understand what's happening".

Saying "it's difficult" may be perfectly true, but doesn't bring us any closer to solving the problem.

Who is "us"? I am not going to solve that problem. Neither are you. The appropriate national security agencies aren't terrible interested in your or mine (or the whole LW's) opinions.

One of the reasons why politics is discouraged on LW is that in almost all cases you just talk about it, but do not actually do (and cannot do) anything.

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