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CellBioGuy comments on The Thyroid Madness: Two Apparently Contradictory Studies. Proof? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (76)
10 mg was what showed thyroid enlargement, but they saw hormone changes without definitive toxicological effects at all doses down to the minimum they tried, ten micrograms per kg per day. Quote:
"Statistically significant changes in TSH and thyroid hormones were observed at all AP dosage levels tested; however, no thyroid organ weight or histopathological effects were observed at AP dosage levels < or = 1.0 mg/kg/day. In the absence of thyroid organ weight and histopathological effects, the toxicological significance of TSH and thyroid hormone changes at AP dosage levels < or = 1.0 mg/kg/day remains to be determined."
I have little strong opinion here, just noting that they saw subtle hormone changes at very low doses and it's hard to ask a mouse how they feel.
Is it normal in a study like this to report the results separately for males and females? At low intervention levels what's significant for males is not significant for females and vice versa, so there's some potential for statistical shenanigans.
Agree with this too. On the one hand, Simpson's Paradox, on the other hand, Simpson's Paradox. But if you don't expect male/female confounder, it just gives you three goes at the magic p<0.05.
Frequentism. It's just broken.
This is absolutely evidence that huge doses of this stuff knacker your thyroid. But huge doses of most nasty chemicals probably do that. There's no particular reason to finger this as a significant cause unless it's in the environment in huge doses.