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Gram_Stone comments on Attempts to Debias Hindsight Backfire! - Less Wrong Discussion

7 Post author: Gram_Stone 13 June 2016 04:13PM

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Comment author: Gram_Stone 14 June 2016 01:59:14AM 0 points [-]

The previous setup was different, and it's unclear what it means to have "replicated results".

I meant that the control condition replicated (reproduced, demonstrated once more) the result found in previous publications on the hindsight bias, namely that subjects view known outcomes as far more inevitable than they would have before the outcome was known. Maybe "results from previous studies" would fix this...? I thought it was clear enough, but I would.

Comment author: SquirrelInHell 14 June 2016 02:15:38AM 1 point [-]

"results from previous studies" doesn't fix it;

neither does "subjects view known outcomes as far more inevitable";

Be concrete!

e.g. "Later, they were asked to recall what their predictions were. The subjects, on average, remembered a higher confidence in their past prediction that Bush would win, compared to what had reported before the election."

Again - be concrete. By and large, avoid any dangling references to "previous results", or even previous sections of the same article.