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Vaniver comments on 2016 LessWrong Diaspora Survey Analysis: Part Two (LessWrong Use, Successorship, Diaspora) - Less Wrong Discussion

28 Post author: ingres 10 June 2016 07:40PM

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Comment author: Vaniver 12 June 2016 11:09:08PM 2 points [-]

I'm trying to reconcile the 353 people on LW with the 668 people who never left. What do you think is up there?

Comment author: ingres 12 June 2016 11:11:38PM *  0 points [-]

I think those people interpreted the question as "Never left the community" or some such, rather than the site itself.

Also if you add up the LW and LW Meetup numbers they're almost that, I'd have to play with the data real quick to see how much overlap there is. Eh it's just a SQL query I'll do it right now:

sqlite> select count(*) from data where ActiveMemberships_1 = "Yes";

354

sqlite> select count(*) from data where ActiveMemberships_2 = "Yes";

216

sqlite> select count(*) from data where ActiveMemberships1 = "Yes" AND ActiveMemberships2 = "Yes";

77

77 / 354 = 0.2175141242937853

77 / 216 = 0.35648148148148145

P(Meetups | LW Site) = 21.75%

P(LW Site | Meetups) = 35.63%

I think that goes a long way towards explaining that particular inconsistency.

However it still leaves a quarter unaccounted for:

(668 - (354 + (216 - (216 * 0.3563)))) / 668 = 0.2619173652694611

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