- Is Eve irrational?
- Can believing an unfalsifyable believe be rational?
- Can this argument be extended to believe in God?
not unfalsifiable, it's simply unfalsfied
I am trying to make a situation where a belief is (1) unfalsified, (2) unfalsifiable, and (3) has a lack of evidence. How should I change the story such that all 3 conditions are fulfilled. And in that case, would then Eve be irrational?
In a Bayesian framework, the one and only way to make a belief unfalsifiable is to put its probability at 1.
Indeed, since Bayesian update is at the root about logics and not about physics: even if you don't have any technological mean whatsoever to recover an evidence, and will never have, if it's logically possible to falsify a theory, then it's falsifiable.
On the other side, once a belief acquires a probability of 1, then it's set to true in the model and later no amount of evidence can change this status.
Unfortunately for your example, it means that unfalsifiability and lack of evidence, even an extreme one, are orthogonal concern.