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ChristianKl comments on Irrationality Quotes August 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: PhilGoetz 01 August 2016 07:12PM

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Comment author: ChristianKl 01 August 2016 08:34:33PM 2 points [-]

Why should people care about the odds ratio in this case instead of caring about the absolute risk?

It seems to me that if a patient get's a child with a cleft palate they care about the absolute risk of their next child also getting it.

Comment author: RowanE 02 August 2016 01:11:55AM 2 points [-]

I didn't click-through and there might be more context than this, but "chances only increase by 2 to 5 percent" is ambiguous between "percent (as an absolute probability)" and "percent (of the chance it was before)". I'm not sure if it qualifies as an "irrationality quote", it's just unclear and could be confusing, but /u/PhilGoetz's version is a step up.

(I'd maybe not use "odds ratio multiplier", because we're not just concerned about clarity, but clarity to people who might be statistically illiterate)