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turchin comments on Open Thread, Sept 5. - Sept 11. 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

6 Post author: Elo 05 September 2016 12:59AM

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Comment author: Houshalter 05 September 2016 09:15:44AM 4 points [-]

I wrote a thing that turned out to be too long for a comment: The Doomsday Argument is even Worse than Thought

Comment author: turchin 05 September 2016 12:49:56PM 1 point [-]

The best rebuttal I know here is that the question is not asked randomly but conditionally dependent of my position. That is when I ask "why I am so early?" I know that I am "early", and I am not random person from all group. So all who are early will be more interested in DA and ask the question more frequently. But does it completely compensate DA?

For example people who was born 1 January may be more interested in question why their birthday is so early in the year. But it doesn't prevent me using my birthday date to estimate the number of days in a year. (My birthday is on 243th day so the number of days in a year is less than 500 with 50 per cent probability)