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ChristianKl comments on Open thread, Sep. 26 - Oct. 02, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I was at the vet a while back; one of my dogs wasn't well (she's better now). The vet took her back, and after waiting for a few minutes, the vet came back with her.
Apparently there were two possible diagnosis: let's call them x and y, as the specifics aren't important for this anecdote.
The vet specifies that, based on the tests she's run, she cannot tell which diagnosis is accurate.
So I ask the vet: which diagnosis has the higher base rate among dogs of my dog's age and breed?
The vet gives me a funny look.
I rephrase: about how many dogs of my dog's breed and age get diagnosis x versus diagnosis y, without running the tests you did?
The vet gives me another funny look, and eventually replies: that doesn't matter.
My question for Lesswrong: Is there a better way to put this? Because I was kind of speechless after that.
A straightforward question would be: "What's the probability for diagnosis A and what's the probability for diagnosis B?".
Unfortunately you are likely out of luck because your vet doesn't know basic statistics to give you a decent answer.