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James_Miller comments on Agential Risks: A Topic that Almost No One is Talking About - Less Wrong Discussion
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In ten years what's the probability that a CRISPR-competent terrorist group could exterminate mankind? The optimal consequentialist anti-terrorist policies if this answer is >1% should horrify a deontologicalist.
Extremely low. I have never believed any sort of pathogen could come close to wiping us out. They can be defeated by basic breather and biohazard technology. But the main key is that with improved and more accessible biotechnology, our ability to create vaccines and other defence mechanisms against pathogens is greatly enhanced. I actually think the better biotechnology gets, the less likely any pathogen is to wipe us out, even given the fact that terrorists will be able to misuse it more easily.
I hope you are right.
Remember also that viruses that kill lots of people tend to rapidly mutate into less lethal strains due to evolutionary pressures. This is what happened with the 1917 pandemic.
Yes, but evolutionary pressures wouldn't be shaping bioterrorism created viruses in the short run. Also, until we can cure the common cold what's to prevent terrorists (in 10 years with CRISPR) from making a cold virus that's much more virulent, that stays hidden for a few months, and then kills its host.
Indeed. And since all humans are deontologists by nature, it should horrify everyone, and would.