You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.
Comment author:Lumifer
17 October 2016 02:24:31PM
2 points
[-]
Reminds me of a slightly different problem:
You are a bus driver and you start with an empty bus. On the first stop 7 people got in. On the second stop 4 more people got in and two people left. On the third stop no one got in and one person left. On the fourth stop 5 people got in, 2 left. On the fifth stop one got in and two left. What is the colour of the driver's eyes?
Comment author:9eB1
17 October 2016 05:11:24PM
0 points
[-]
The prior is that his eyes are brown, since most people have brown eyes. But in the most populous countries with brown eyes and busses, the busses always have way more than 7 people on them, so that slightly shifts the probability towards non-brown colors. But even in countries where there are fewer bus passengers, most people have brown eyes, so brown is still most likely.
= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
Comments (12)
Reminds me of a slightly different problem:
You are a bus driver and you start with an empty bus. On the first stop 7 people got in. On the second stop 4 more people got in and two people left. On the third stop no one got in and one person left. On the fourth stop 5 people got in, 2 left. On the fifth stop one got in and two left. What is the colour of the driver's eyes?
The prior is that his eyes are brown, since most people have brown eyes. But in the most populous countries with brown eyes and busses, the busses always have way more than 7 people on them, so that slightly shifts the probability towards non-brown colors. But even in countries where there are fewer bus passengers, most people have brown eyes, so brown is still most likely.
Read the first sentence of the problem again.
I didn't get it until I read your comment.
This reminds me of this comment of mine, although it is not directly related.
9eB1, what color are your eyes (if you don't mind me asking)?
I'm not sure, I have different forms of identification that state that they are different colors, but they are not brown.
Do you have a mirror?