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Comment author:9eB1
17 October 2016 05:11:24PM
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The prior is that his eyes are brown, since most people have brown eyes. But in the most populous countries with brown eyes and busses, the busses always have way more than 7 people on them, so that slightly shifts the probability towards non-brown colors. But even in countries where there are fewer bus passengers, most people have brown eyes, so brown is still most likely.
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Comments (12)
The prior is that his eyes are brown, since most people have brown eyes. But in the most populous countries with brown eyes and busses, the busses always have way more than 7 people on them, so that slightly shifts the probability towards non-brown colors. But even in countries where there are fewer bus passengers, most people have brown eyes, so brown is still most likely.
Read the first sentence of the problem again.
I didn't get it until I read your comment.
This reminds me of this comment of mine, although it is not directly related.