You are obviously right! This is helpful :)
Now, just to make sure I got it, does this make sense: the question of gods existence (assuming the term was perfectly defined) is a yes/no question but you are conceptualising the probability that a yes or a no is true. That is why you are using a uniform distribution in a question with a binary answer. It is not representing the answer but your current confidence. Right?
Skipping a complicated discussion about many meanings of "probability", yes.
Think about it this way. Someone gives you a box and says that if you press a button, the box will show you either a dragon head or a dragon tail. That's all the information you have.
What's the probability of the box showing you a head if you press the button? You don't know. This means you need an estimate. If you're forced to produce a single-number estimate (a "point estimate") it will be 50%. However if you can produce this estimate as a distribution, it wil...
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