My criticisms are quite close to what David Chapman is saying and it is really nice to see how someone representative of LW responds to this.
No, I don't think what you are saying is close to what Chapman is arguing. Chapman doesn't argue that we should say "I don't know" instead of pinning probability on statements where we have little knowledge.
I understand and agree with that. I am just trying to find the term I can use when discussing scientific results. I thought 'scientific fact' was ok cause it includes 'scientific' which implies all the rest.
There are enough people who use terms like "scientific fact" without thinking in terms of falsificationism that it's not clear what's implied.
All I am saying is that we shouldn't confuse the fact that we need to decide when we need to decide with the belief that our ratings express truth.
To me your sentence sounds like you have a naive idea of what the word "truth" is supposed to mean. A meaning that you learned as child.
There are some intuitions that come with that view of the world. Some of those intuitions will come into conflict if you come into contact with more refined ideas of what truth happens to be and how epistemology should work. There are various philosophers like Popper who have put forward more refined concepts. Eliezer Yudkowsky has put forward his own concepts on lesswrong.
I just learned (see comments bellow) that "I don't know" is not 50/50 but a uniform distribution. Could you give me a few examples of credence calibration as it happens from your perspective?
For binary yes/no predictions the uniform distribution leads to 50/50. https://www.metaculus.com, http://predictionbook.com/ and https://www.gjopen.com/ do have plenty of examples.
No, I don't think what you are saying is close to what Chapman is arguing. Chapman doesn't argue that we should say "I don't know" instead of pinning probability on statements where we have little knowledge.
Sorry. I meant my general criticisms (which I haven't expressed), not in the sense of our current discussion. I wasn't very clear.
...To me your sentence sounds like you have a naive idea of what the word "truth" is supposed to mean. A meaning that you learned as child. There are some intuitions that come with that view of the world
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