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If by prevailing we agree to mean "accepted as true by the majority of people who worked on the subject", then it's safe to say that causal decistion theory was the prevailing theory, and CDT two-boxes, so it's sub-optimal and so Newcomb is a counter-example.
That is exactly the crux of the matter: decision theory must be faced with problem of source code stability and self-alignment.
Well, there's a probabilistic Newcomb problem and it's relevant in strategic decision making, so it's not very improbable. It's like the Prisoner's dilemma, once you know it you start to see it everywhere.
I don't see it as sub-optimal (I two-box in case you haven't guessed it already).
I don't understand what that means. Can you ELI5?
OK. Throw out the word "improbable". You are still left with
You haven't made much progress.