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If you were offered a package deal with X% chance of your best imaginable utopia and Y% chance of all life instantly going extinct, for which values of X and Y would you accept the deal?
It seems to me like the most important piece of data is your prior on the default conditions. If, for example, there was a 99% chance of the universe winding up getting tiled in paperclips in the next year then I would accept very unlikely odds on X and likely odds on Y. Depending on how likely you think an "I Have No Mouth but I Must Scream" situation is, you might 'win' even if Y happens.
Hrm. A somewhat pedantic but important question; are these chances independent of each other? For example, lets say X and Y are both 50%. Does that mean I'm g... (read more)