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Lumifer comments on Prediction should be a sport - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: chaosmage 10 August 2017 07:55AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 10 August 2017 02:57:27PM *  5 points [-]

I think your starting assumptions are false.

prediction markets ... aren't really catching on

Not true. Most financial markets are prediction markets. They seem to be popular.

stock market, which for the vast majority of people is no less distasteful

Not true. In fact, I do not know a single person who would characterize the stock market as "distasteful". Caveat: I don't know many tankies.

Only a small minority of people are neither disgusted by nor terrified of gambling.

Not true. Look at how many people are playing the lotteries, going to casinos, etc.

In general, "prediction market as a sport" is called trading the financial markets. HUGE prizes :-D

Comment author: akvadrako 12 August 2017 05:55:26PM 1 point [-]

Not true. Most financial markets are prediction markets. They seem to be popular.

That may be technically true, but only in a superficial sense. Stocks prices have a very complicated relationship to real world events, except in the very long term. That's very different from markets like https://www.predictit.org which have clear connections to things like who will win elections and objective criteria.

Comment author: Lumifer 14 August 2017 02:54:01PM 0 points [-]

Stocks prices have a very complicated relationship to real world events

First, I didn't say "stocks", I said "financial markets".

Second, all markets, prediction included, have a complicated relationship to real-world events. The markets strongly react to some, weakly react to others, and ignore the great majority of them.

I think you're trying to say that financial markets ignore some events you're interested in. That's a fair point, but it also applies to all markets.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 12 August 2017 08:52:44AM 0 points [-]

I don't know many tankies.

My favorite word of the day!