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tadasdatys comments on Prediction should be a sport - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: chaosmage 10 August 2017 07:55AM

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Comment author: tadasdatys 11 August 2017 04:28:35PM 0 points [-]

Well, I can imagine a post on SSC with 5 statements about the next week, where other users would reply with probabilities of each becoming true, and arguments for that. Then, after the week, you could count the scores and name the winners in the OP. It would probably get a positive reaction. Why not give it a try?

I'm not sure what the 5 statements should be though. I think it must be "next week" not "next year", because you can't enjoy a game if you've forgotten you're playing it. Also, for it to be a game, it has to be repeatable, but if you start predicting the most important events of the year, you'll run out very fast. On the other hand, weekly events tend to be unimportant random fluctuations. I think that's a big problem with the whole idea.

One possible solution could be to do experiments rather than predict natural events, i.e. "On day X I will try to do Y. Will it work?".