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akvadrako comments on Prediction should be a sport - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: chaosmage 10 August 2017 07:55AM

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Comment author: akvadrako 12 August 2017 05:55:26PM 1 point [-]

Not true. Most financial markets are prediction markets. They seem to be popular.

That may be technically true, but only in a superficial sense. Stocks prices have a very complicated relationship to real world events, except in the very long term. That's very different from markets like https://www.predictit.org which have clear connections to things like who will win elections and objective criteria.

Comment author: Lumifer 14 August 2017 02:54:01PM 0 points [-]

Stocks prices have a very complicated relationship to real world events

First, I didn't say "stocks", I said "financial markets".

Second, all markets, prediction included, have a complicated relationship to real-world events. The markets strongly react to some, weakly react to others, and ignore the great majority of them.

I think you're trying to say that financial markets ignore some events you're interested in. That's a fair point, but it also applies to all markets.