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entirelyuseless comments on The Doomsday argument in anthropic decision theory - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 31 August 2017 01:44PM

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Comment author: entirelyuseless 02 September 2017 02:16:43PM 0 points [-]

That answer might be fine for copies, but not for situations where copies are involved in no way, like the Doomsday Argument. It is nonsense to say that you are both early and late in the series of human beings.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 02 September 2017 06:22:39PM 0 points [-]

Copies are involved in DA. To use anthropics, you have to "update on your position on your reference class" (or some similar construction). At that very moment, just before you update, you can be any person at all - if not, you can't update. You can be anyone equally.

(of course, nobody really "updates" that way, because people first realise who they are, then long after that learn about the DA. But if SSA people are allowed to "update" like that, I'm allowed to look at the hypothetical before such an update)

Comment author: entirelyuseless 02 September 2017 07:52:09PM 0 points [-]

"I'm allowed to look at the hypothetical before such an update"

In the Doomsday argument as I understand it, you are allowed to do that. Nothing about our present knowledge gives any strong suggestion that human race will last millions of years.