The best tradeoff is when you are well calibrated, just like with everything else.
In the "selfish default" you basically never have false positives, but also you have false negatives like all the time. So duh.
The best tradeoff is when you are well calibrated, just like with everything else.
"Well calibrated" isn't a simple thing, though. It's always a conscious decision of how willing you are to tolerate false positives vs false negatives.
Anyway, I'm not trying to shoot you down here; I really did like your article, and I think you made a good point. Just saying that it's possible to have a great insight and still overshoot or over-correct for a previous mistake you've made, and if you think that almost everyone you see is suffering, you may be doing just that.