Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

Lumifer comments on Open Letter to MIRI + Tons of Interesting Discussion - Less Wrong Discussion

0 Post author: curi 22 November 2017 09:16PM

Comments (162)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: curi 01 December 2017 09:10:51PM *  0 points [-]

What is an "intellectual" fixing of an error instead of a plain-vanilla fixing of an error?

I'm talking about identifying an error and writing a better idea. That's different than e.g. spending 50 years working on the better idea or somehow getting others to.

What's the % chance that he is correct? AFAIK he has been saying the same thing for years.

Yeah it's been staying the same due to lack of funding.

I don't typically do % estimates like you guys, but I read his book and some other material (for his side and against), and talked with him, and I believe (using philosophy) his ideas merit major research attention over their rivals.

You don't think that figuring out which ideas are "best available" is the hard part? Everyone and his dog claims his idea is the best.

well, using philosophy i did that hard part and figured out which ones are good.

I don't think that's true. Most people don't want to live for a long time as wrecks with Alzheimer's and pains in every joint, but invent a treatment that lets you stay at, say, the the 30-year-old level of health indefinitely and I bet few people will refuse (at least the non-religious ones).

oh they won't refuse that after it's cheaply available. they are confused and inconsistent.

Why is there a "should"?

b/c i didn't want the interpretation that it can be explained multiple ways. i'm advocating just the one option.

The twin studies are garbage, btw

All of them?

i have surveyed them and found them to all be garbage. i looked specifically at ones with some of the common, important conclusions, e.g. about heritability of autism, IQ, that kinda stuff. they have major methodological problems. but i imagine you could find some study involving twins, about something, which is ok.

if you believe you know a twin study that is not garbage, would you accept an explanation of why it's garbage as a demonstration of the power and importance of CR philosophy?

Comment author: Lumifer 01 December 2017 09:29:10PM 0 points [-]

You don't think that figuring out which ideas are "best available" is the hard part? Everyone and his dog claims his idea is the best.

well, using philosophy i did that hard part and figured out which ones are good

LOL. Oh boy.

Really? So you just used t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶c̶e̶ philosophy and figured it out? That's great! Just a minor thing I'm confused about -- why are you here chatting on the 'net instead of sitting on your megayacht with a line of VCs in front of your door, willing to pay you gazillions of dollars for telling them which ideas are actually good? This looks to be VERY valuable knowledge, surely you should be able to exchange it for lots and lots of money in this capitalist economy?

Comment author: Elo 01 December 2017 09:42:02PM 0 points [-]

When Banzan was walking through a market he overheard a conversation between a butcher and his customer. “Give me the best piece of meat you have,” said the customer.

“Everything in my shop is the best,” replied the butcher. You cannot find here any piece of meat that is not the best.”

At these words Banzan became enlightened.


Comment author: curi 01 December 2017 09:36:05PM *  0 points [-]

the VCs would laugh, like you, and don't want to hear it. surely this doesn't surprise you.

i'm also not a big fan of yachts and prefer discussions.

Comment author: Lumifer 01 December 2017 09:45:14PM 0 points [-]

No, what surprises me is your belief that you just figured it all out. Using philosophy. That's it, we're done, everyone can go home now.

And since everything is binary and you don't have any tools to talk about things like uncertainty, this is The Truth and anyone who doesn't recognize it as such is either a knave or a fool.

There also a delicious overtone of irony in that a guy as lacking in humility as you are, chooses to describe his system as "fallible ideas".

Comment author: curi 01 December 2017 09:57:18PM 0 points [-]

i have tools to talk about uncertainty, which are different than your tools, and which conceive of uncertainty somewhat differently than you do.

i have not figured it ALL out, but many things, such as the quality of SENS and twin studies.

fallibilism is one of the major philosophical ideas used in figuring things out. it's crucial but it doesn't imply, as you seem to believe, hedging, ignorance, equivocation, not knowing much, etc.