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Thinking like a Scientist

5 FrameBenignly 19 July 2015 02:43PM
I've been often wondering why scientific thinking seems to be so rare.  What I mean by this is dividing problems into theory and empiricism, specifying your theory exactly then looking for evidence to either confirm or deny the theory, or finding evidence to later form an exact theory.

This is a bit narrower than the broader scope of rational thinking.  A lot of rationality isn't scientific.  Scientific methods don't just allow you to get a solution, but also to understand that solution.

For instance, a lot of early Renaissance tradesmen were rational, but not scientific.  They knew that a certain set of steps produced iron, but the average blacksmith couldn't tell you anything about chemical processes.  They simply did a set of steps and got a result.

Similarly, a lot of modern medicine is rational, but not too scientific.  A doctor sees something and it looks like a common ailment with similar symptoms they've seen often before, so they just assume that's what it is.  They may run a test to verify their guess.  Their job generally requires a gigantic memory of different diseases, but not too much knowledge of scientific investigation.

What's most damning is that our scientific curriculum in schools don't teach a lot of scientific thinking.

What we get instead is mostly useless facts.  We learn what a cell membrane is, or how to balance a chemical equation.  Learning about, say, the difference between independent and dependent variables is often left to circumstance.  You learn about type I and type II errors when you happen upon a teacher who thinks it's a good time to include that in the curriculum, or you learn it on your own.  Some curriculums include a required research methods course, but the availability and quality of this course varies greatly between both disciplines and colleges.  Why there isn't a single standardized method of teaching this stuff is beyond me.  Even math curriculums are structured around calculus instead of the much more useful statistics and data science placing ridiculous hurdles for the typical non-major that most won't surmount.

It should not be surprising then that so many fail at even basic analysis.  I have seen many people make basic errors that they are more than capable of understanding but simply were never taught.  People aren't precise with their definitions.  They don't outline their relevant variables.  They construct far too complex theoretical models without data.  They come to conclusions based on small sample sizes.  They overweight personal experiences, even those experienced by others, and underweight statistical data.  They focus too much on outliers and not enough on averages.  Even professors, who do excellent research otherwise, often suddenly stop thinking analytically as soon as they step outside their domain of expertise.  And some professors never learn the proper method.

Much of this site focuses on logical consistency and eliminating biases.  It often takes this to an extreme; what Yvain refers to as X-Rationality.  But eliminating biases barely scratches the surface of what is often necessary to truly understand a problem.  This may be why it is said that learning about rationality often reduces rationality.  An incomplete, slightly improved, but still quite terrible solution may generate a false sense of certainty.  Unbiased analysis won't fix a lousy dataset.  And it seems rather backwards to focus on what not to do (biases) rather than what to do (analytic techniques).

 

True understanding is often extremely hard.  Good scientific analysis is hard.  It's disappointing that most people don't seem to understand even the basics of science.

Minerva Project: the future of higher education?

11 Natha 10 November 2014 05:59AM

Right now, the inaugural class of Minerva Schools at KGI (part of the Claremont Colleges) is finishing up its first semester of college. I use the word "college" here loosely: there are no lecture halls, no libraries, no fraternities, no old stone buildings, no sports fields, no tenure... Furthermore, Minerva operates for profit (which may raise eyebrows), but appeals to a decidedly different demographic than DeVry etc; billed as the first "online Ivy", it relies on a proprietary online platform to apply pedagogical best practices. Has anyone heard of this before?

The Minerva Project's instructional innovations are what's really exciting. There are no lectures. There are no introductory classes. (There are MOOCs for that! "Do your freshman year at home.") Students meet for seminar-based online classes which are designed to inculcate "habits of mind"; professors use a live, interactive video platform to teach classes, which tracks students' progress and can individualize instruction. The seminars are active and intense; to quote from a recent (Sept. 2014) Atlantic article,

"The subject of the class ...was inductive reasoning. [The professor] began by polling us on our understanding of the reading, a Nature article about the sudden depletion of North Atlantic cod in the early 1990s. He asked us which of four possible interpretations of the article was the most accurate. In an ordinary undergraduate seminar, this might have been an occasion for timid silence... But the Minerva class extended no refuge for the timid, nor privilege for the garrulous. Within seconds, every student had to provide an answer, and [the professor] displayed our choices so that we could be called upon to defend them. [The professor] led the class like a benevolent dictator, subjecting us to pop quizzes, cold calls, and pedagogical tactics that during an in-the-flesh seminar would have taken precious minutes of class time to arrange."

It sounds to me like Minerva is actually making a solid effort to apply evidence-based instructional techniques that are rarely ever given a chance. There are boatloads of sound, reproducible experiments that tell us how people learn and what teachers can do to improve learning, but in practice they are almost wholly ignored. To take just one example, spaced repetition and the testing effect are built into the seminar platform: students have a pop quiz at the beginning of each class and another one at a random moment later in the class. Terrific! And since it's all computer-based, the software can keep track of student responses and represent the material at optimal intervals.

Also, much more emphasis is put on articulating positions and defending arguments, which is known to result in deeper processing of material. In general though, I really like how you are called out and held to account for your answers (again, from the Atlantic article:

...it was exhausting: a continuous period of forced engagement, with no relief in the form of time when my attention could flag or I could doodle in a notebook undetected. Instead, my focus was directed relentlessly by the platform, and because it looked like my professor and fellow edu-nauts were staring at me, I was reluctant to ever let my gaze stray from the screen... I felt my attention snapped back to the narrow issue at hand, because I had to answer a quiz question or articulate a position. I was forced, in effect, to learn.

Their approach to admissions is also interesting. The Founding Class had a 2.8% acceptance rate (a ton were enticed to apply on promise of a full scholarship) and features students from ~14 countries. In the application process, no consideration is given to diversity, balance of gender, or national origin, and SAT/ACT scores are not accepted: applicants must complete a battery of proprietary computer-based quizzes, essentially an in-house IQ test. If they perform well enough, they are invited for an interview, during which they must compose a short essay to ensure an authentic writing sample (i.e., no ghostwriters). After all is said and done, the top 30 applicants get in.

Anyway, I am a student and researcher in the field of educational psychology so this may not be as exciting to others. I'm surprised that I hadn't heard of it before though, and I'm really curious to see what comes of it!

Good books for incoming college students?

1 aarongertler 06 July 2014 01:21AM

My sister (and about 2.5 million other people) are headed to college in the fall.

I gave her a copy of Cal Newport's How to Win at College as a graduation gift, but given that her life is about to change more than it has in any of the past 14 years, one book probably isn't enough.

What books do you think incoming/recently arrived college students should be reading? You can assign reading with any motivation you'd like, but I'm looking especially hard for books that meet the following criteria:

 

  • An average to somewhat-above-average college student can read them without much struggle.
  • They have some practical application in college life/job seeking/being a good adult (rather than just being a personal favorite book).
  • They are easy to find and budget-friendly (free online/cheap on Amazon/probably in the college library).
  • They are not Oh, The Places You'll Go, just to head you pranksters off at the pass.
Bonus points if it's a book that you read in late high school or college and you can tell us what impact it had on your life at the time!

My suggestions would include Getting Things Done, Thinking Fast and Slow, Redirect, and The Charisma Myth. What would you suggest?

 

College discussion thread

5 benkuhn 01 April 2014 03:21AM

It's that time of year when high school seniors are thinking about colleges, and by extension, everyone who knows any high school seniors is thinking about colleges as well. So let's let Less Wrong join in!

Do you have:

  • questions about choosing, preparing for, or attending colleges?
  • sage advice about choosing, preparing for, or attending colleges?
  • announcements of which college you'll be attending or visiting and when (for instance, so that you can meet local LWers)?
  • other things not worth their own post such that 'people who clicked on the "College discussion thread"' is an appropriate audience?
Please post them below!

What should a college student do to maximize future earnings for effective altruism?

16 D_Malik 27 August 2013 07:06PM

 

I'd like to solicit advice since I'm starting at Stanford this Fall and I'm interested in optimal philanthropy.

First off, what should I major in? I have experience in programming and math, so I'm thinking of majoring in CS, possibly with a second major or a minor in applied math. But switching costs are still extremely low at the moment, so I should consider other fields.

Some majors that could have higher lifetime earnings than straight CS:

  • Petroleum engineering. Would non-oil energy sources cause pay to drop over the next 40 years?
  • Actuarial math. If I understand correctly, actuaries had high pay because they were basically a cartel, artificially limiting the supply of certifications to a certain number each year. And I've heard that people that used to hire actuaries now hire cheaper equivalents, so pay could be less over the next 40 years.
  • Chemical engineering, nuclear engineering, electrical and electronics engineering, mechanical engineering, aerospace engineering.
  • Pre-med.
  • Quantitative finance.

Thoughts?

Stanford actually has salary data for 2011-2012 graduates by major. CS has highest earnings, by quite far. The data is incomplete because few people responded and some groups were omitted for privacy, so we don't know what e.g. petroleum engineers or double majors earned.

Should I double-major? There are some earnings statistics here; to summarize, two majors in the same field doesn't help; a science major plus a humanities major has lower earnings than the science major alone; greatest returns are achieved by pairing a math/science major with an engineering major, which increases earnings "up to 30%" above the math/science major alone. I'd guess these effects are largely not causation, but correlation caused by conscientiousness/ambition causing both double majors and higher earnings.

I could also get minors. I'm planning to very carefully look over the requirements for each major and minor, since there do seem to be some cheap gains. A math minor can be done in one quarter, for instance; a math major takes only a bit more than two quarters.

I have a table with the unit requirements of each combination of majors and minors. Most students take 15 units a quarter. Here are some major/minor combinations I could do:

  • If I take 18.8 units a quarter, I could double-major in CS and econ.
  • If I take 15.8 units a quarter, I could major in CS and minor in math and econ.
  • If I take 15.4 units a quarter, I could double-major in CS and math.

Cal Newport argues that this sort of thing a bad idea because hard schedules do not actually impress employers more.

Would employers care about double majors in undergrad if I also get a graduate degree? I will do a master's degree or a PhD, partly because those make it a lot easier to emigrate to the US. (I'm from South Africa, which doesn't have much of a software industry.)

What other things could increase earnings?

  • Doing an internship every summer.
  • Networking. Stanford's statistics on how 2011-2012 graduates found jobs indicates that around 29% of them got jobs through networking.
  • Better social skills? I'm planning on taking some classes on public speaking, improv, etc.; what else should I do?
  • Some way of signalling leadership skills? Maybe I could try to get into a leadership position at a student club or something.
  • Honors programs, or doing research. Do employers care about this?
  • Following the advice of Stanford's Career Development Center, for instance about how to prepare for career fairs, using their internship network, making appointments with their career counselors, etc.
  • Studying abroad. I'm already studying abroad by going to Stanford, so this is probably less valuable for me than for most students, though it still seems likely to be worthwhile. Stanford has a Washington program involving internships and classes taught by policymakers, which might be worth doing. Both these would make it harder to do multiple majors and minors.

Many thanks for all advice given!

 

EDIT: I used a scoring rule to rank all combinations of majors and minors in CS, math, economics and MS&E (management science and engineering) according to practicality and estimated effect on earnings. Unit estimates include all breadth requirements etc., assuming I don't take stupid courses. Here's the top 20; the top 10 all look pretty good:

CS Math Econ MS&E   Total Units Units per quarter Hours/day
               
minor minor MAJOR minor   198 16.5 7.1
MAJOR . minor minor   207 17.3 7.4
minor . MAJOR minor   189 15.8 6.8
minor . MAJOR MAJOR   216 18.0 7.7
MAJOR minor minor minor   216 18.0 7.7
minor MAJOR minor minor   183 15.3 6.5
MAJOR . . MAJOR   199 16.6 7.1
minor MAJOR minor MAJOR   210 17.5 7.5
minor minor minor MAJOR   180 15.0 6.4
minor MAJOR MAJOR .   202 16.8 7.2
MAJOR minor minor .   190 15.8 6.8
MAJOR minor . MAJOR   208 17.3 7.4
MAJOR MAJOR . minor   211 17.6 7.5
. minor MAJOR MAJOR   192 16.0 6.9
minor minor MAJOR MAJOR   225 18.8 8.0
MAJOR . minor MAJOR   234 19.5 8.4
minor . minor MAJOR   171 14.3 6.1
. MAJOR MAJOR minor   195 16.3 7.0
minor MAJOR MAJOR minor   228 19.0 8.1
MAJOR minor . minor   181 15.1 6.5
MAJOR MAJOR minor .   220 18.3 7.9
MAJOR . MAJOR .   226 18.8 8.1
MAJOR . minor .   181 15.1 6.5
minor MAJOR . MAJOR   175 14.6 6.3
MAJOR MAJOR . .   185 15.4 6.6
minor minor MAJOR .   172 14.3 6.1
. . MAJOR MAJOR   183 15.3 6.5
MAJOR minor MAJOR .   235 19.6 8.4
MAJOR . . minor   172 14.3 6.1

Another option is to major or minor in M&CS (mathematical and computational sciences) instead of math or CS separately.

 

EDIT 2: Here is a graph of graduates' salaries by major. Y-axis is salary of 2011-2012 Stanford graduates. X-axis is degree: 1 is BA/BS, 2 is MA/MS, 3 is PhD; intermediate values are for groups containing two degree-levels. The sample size is tiny because only 30% of students responded, and some groups were omitted for privacy.

Admissions Essay Help?

5 OnTheOtherHandle 01 August 2012 07:19PM

I need help writing a college application essay that will maximize my chances of getting into a school that the world considers prestigious. (17 years old, preparing to enter 12th grade at a central California high school as of this writing.)

Throughout high school, I resisted being over-scheduled, and basically eschewed all extracurricular activities in favor of having time to think and read. Even when my parents pushed me into things like tennis, dance, or debate clubs (ugh), I was secure in the belief that I could forgo them and rely on my grades and test scores to get me into a college that was good enough to earn a useful engineering degree and find a few interesting friends. (I was right.)

However, my priorities have changed, and I’m starting to really value the extra leverage prestige can bring me. I plan to start a Less Wrong/80,000 Hours club at whatever university I end up attending. I would have access to more intelligent, interested people at Stanford than at, say, UC Irvine. Perhaps more importantly, the club itself would have a better standing in the outside world if it were founded in Stanford. (This in addition to the fact that Stanford already has a world-class Decisions and Ethics Center that may be able to help.)

This is not to say I now regret not being an officer in a dozen useless clubs or participating in endless extracurricular activities. I do, however, regret not doing at least one really impressive, externally-verifiable thing like writing a book. Nothing in my life would make someone say, “Wow, how the hell did she do that?” If admissions officers could scan my brain, they would find a lot that would make them say, “How the hell could she think that?” – but not much of it would be positive.

So my question is, how do I write a personal statement essay, 250-500 words, that will leave an impression in an admissions officer’s mind, without lying or plagiarizing, given that my adolescence was spent thinking and reading, not *doing*? Each university then has 2-4 follow-up prompts (<= 250 words), such as these from Stanford:

  1. Stanford students possess intellectual vitality. Reflect on an idea or experience that has been important to your intellectual development.
  2. Virtually all of Stanford’s undergraduates live on campus. What would you want your future roommate to know about you? Tell us something about you that will help your roommate—and us—know you better.
  3. What matters to you, and why?

The problem with answering these is that all of my *best* answers for these questions (“Newcomblike problems,” “Hey, do you want to join this rationality club I want to start?”, and “optimal philanthropy,” respectively) would take way more than 250 words to explain.

The focus on Stanford, by the way, is because my parents would be extremely unwilling to send me to a university on the East Coast, even if it were really prestigious. But feel free to give me general advice or advice specific to another university. :) If it actually happens, I'll be in a better position to convince them.

May Be Relevant:

I once tutored a girl in Algebra 1 over a period of three months, bringing her grades up from a D to a B. She stopped needing help and I didn’t go looking for another tutee.

I completed NaNoWriMo my freshman year – yeah, it was pretty bad.

I’ve been writing a daily essay on 750 words since December 2010, and have written over 518,000 words in 562 days – writing something 98% of the time, and completing my words 95% of the time. (Although a lot of the missed days were due to glitches in the early website eating my words.)

I entered the Science Fair with a couple friends, hated it because it crushed the spirit of curious inquiry under a predetermined experimental procedure with a predetermined result, and unsurprisingly didn’t win – although we got a certificate from the US Army.

I joined a community service club, hated it because we were just unpaid labor for rich people who didn’t need much help, but stayed anyway because my friends were in it.

General SAT: Reading and Writing scores slightly above the median for most prestigious universities, Math score slightly below. 800's on SAT Math II (Pre-calculus), SAT Biology Molecular, and SAT US History.

5's on AP Calculus AB, AP English Language, and other, less relevant AP's. Five AP classes so far taken, received A's, planning to take 6 more next year.

High probability of a good letter of recommendation from APUSH and Calculus teachers.

Thank you!

Edit: Fixed the hyperlink formatting.

Leaps of faith in college selection

5 tomme 25 July 2012 03:23PM

Since this fall I will be applying to college in the USA, I have compiled a hefty list of colleges based on the following criteria:

-4-year school;

-co-ed or all men;

-Biology major;

-"full-ride" financial aid available.

The problem's that I have quite a lot of choices, hundreds, as a matter of fact. So how should I narrow down my list even further, given that I don't care about other stuff, such as campus size or location?

Moreover, to how many colleges should I apply? As far as I know, mpst people apply to 6-9 colleges, but some even apply to 20! I guess that by applying to as many colleges possible, my chances of admission go up. But, I probably won't have time to write hundreds of admission essays, or the money to send in my application to all these colleges.

Lastly, as my objective is to gain admission somewhere, should I only apply to colleges with acceptance rates above a certain percentage? What should that percentage be?

If anyone would like to take this in private, I'd be more than happy to receive some advice from any member of the community!

 

 

What to do after college?

8 mtaran 09 October 2011 03:00AM

My friend is looking for some advice on what he should do after graduating from Harvey Mudd College. Some relevant bits of information about him are that he

 

  • is not a US citizen, so he'd only be able to stay in the US if he's working or at a grad school. He's open to suggestions for other countries.
  • is great at math and computer science, including doing real-world programming
  • wants to help the world

He's currently looking for a grad school where he could tackle interesting problems with possible high benefits in the future. I've made my own suggestions, but I'd like to get a (somewhat) independent set of opinions from the LW community.

So please suggest away!

 

College Selection Advice

4 atucker 09 March 2011 10:13PM

I, and a lot of other people my age, are currently facing a pretty big life decision -- where to go to college. Since this is probably going to have a pretty big impact on my life, I'd like to get some more information on this.

Seeing as a lot of people here have probably made this choice already, gone through with some of the consequences of it, and are rational, I decided to ask here.

My current considerations are:

 

  • Academic rigor
  • Money (i.e. if a school gives me a full ride, should I go there rather than plunk down $250k over 4 years)
  • Ability to do undergrad research
  • Flexibility
  • Likelihood to meet cool people
  • Novelty (this one's a lot weaker though)
My current situation is:
  • Accepted to MIT, University of Southern California, University of Maryland, Swarthmore, Harvey Mudd, Harvard, and CMU
  • Getting some form of scholarships at USC and UMD, amount TBD
  • Not likely to receive that much need-based financial aid
  • Probably going to start in Engineering, might double major with Comp Sci, Statistics, or maybe Math. If I go to CMU, probably Engineering and Public Policy
  • I also like and am competent in Economics, History, and English (though, definitely not getting a degree in the last 2)
  • Maryland is my home state, and I would know a lot of people at UMD
So if you have any advice, for me or in general, I'd love to hear it. If you have any questions yourself, feel free to ask them.

 

Advice for a Budding Rationalist

7 atucker 19 November 2010 03:10AM

Most people in the US with internet connections who are reading this site will at some point in their lives graduate high school. I haven't yet, and it seems like what I do afterwards will have a pretty big effect on the rest of my life.* 

Given that, I think I should ask for some advice.

Generally,
Any advice? Anything you wish you knew? Disagreement with the premise? (If you disagree, please explain what to do anyway.)

More specific to the site,
Any advice for high schoolers with a rationalist and singularitarian bent? Who are probably looking at going to college?
Anything particularly effective for working against existential risk?
Any fields particularly useful for rationalists to know?
Any fields in which rationalists would be particularly helpful?

This is intended to be a pretty general reference for life advice for the young ones among us. With a college selection bent, probably. If you're in high school and have a specific situation that you want help with/advice for, please reply to this post with that. I think that a most people have specific skills/background they could leverage, so a one-size-fits all approach seems to be somewhat simplistic.

*I understand that I can always change plans later, but there are many many things that seem to require some level of commitment, like college.

Edit:
As Unnamed pointed out, also look at this article about undergraduate course selection.