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A collection of Stubs.
In light of SDR's comment yesterday, instead of writing a new post today I compiled my list of ideas I wanted to write about, partly to lay them out there and see if any stood out as better than the rest, and partly so that maybe they would be a little more out in the wild than if I hold them until I get around to them. I realise there is not a thesis in this post, but I figured it would be better to write one of these than to write each in it's own post with the potential to be good or bad.
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/many-draft-concepts/
I create ideas at about the rate of 3 a day, without trying to. I write at about a rate of 1.5 a day. Which leaves me always behind. Even if I write about the best ideas I can think of, some good ones might never be covered. This is an effort to draft out a good stack of them so that maybe it can help me not have to write them all out, by better defining which ones are the good ones and which ones are a bit more useless.
With that in mind, in no particular order - a list of unwritten posts:
From my old table of contents
Goals of your lesswrong group – As a guided/workthrough exercise in deciding why the group exists and what it should do. Help people work out what they want out of it (do people know)? setting goals, doing something particularly interesting or routine, having fun, changing your mind, being activists in the world around you. Whatever the reasons you care about, work them out and move towards them. Nothing particularly groundbreaking in the process here. Sit down with the group with pens and paper, maybe run a resolve cycle, maybe talk about ideas and settle on a few, then decide how to carry them out. Relevant links: Sydney meetup, group resources (estimate 2hrs to write)
Goals interrogation + Goal levels – Goal interrogation is about asking <is this thing I want to do actually a goal of mine> and <is my current plan the best way to achieve that>, goal levels are something out of Sydney Lesswrong that help you have mutual long term goals and supporting short term goal. There are 3 main levels, Dream, Year, Daily (or approximate) you want dream goals like going to the moon, you want yearly goals like getting another year further in your degree and you want daily goals like studying today that contribute to the upper level goals. Any time you are feeling lost you can look at the guide you set out for yourself and use it to direct you. (3hrs)
How to human – A zero to human guide. A guide for basic functionality of a humanoid system. Something of a conglomeration of maslow, mental health, so you feel like shit and system thinking. Am I conscious?Am I breathing? Am I bleeding or injured (major or minor)? Am I falling or otherwise in danger and about to cause the earlier questions to return false? Do I know where I am? Am I safe? Do I need to relieve myself (or other bodily functions, i.e. itchy)? Have I had enough water? sleep? food? Is my mind altered (alcohol or other drugs)? Am I stuck with sensory input I can't control (noise, smells, things touching me)? Am I too hot or too cold? Is my environment too hot or too cold? Or unstable? Am I with people or alone? Is this okay? Am I clean (showered, teeth, other personal cleaning rituals)? Have I had some sunlight and fresh air in the past few days? Have I had too much sunlight or wind in the past few days? Do I feel stressed? Okay? Happy? Worried? Suspicious? Scared? Was I doing something? What am I doing? do I want to be doing something else? Am I being watched (is that okay?)? Have I interacted with humans in the past 24 hours? Have I had alone time in the past 24 hours? Do I have any existing conditions I can run a check on - i.e. depression? Are my valuables secure? Are the people I care about safe? (4hrs)
List of common strategies for getting shit done – things like scheduling/allocating time, pomodoros, committing to things externally, complice, beeminder, other trackers. (4hrs)
List of superpowers and kryptonites – when asking the question “what are my superpowers?” and “what are my kryptonites?”. Knowledge is power; working with your powers and working out how to avoid your kryptonites is a method to improve yourself. What are you really good at, and what do you absolutely suck at and would be better delegating to other people. The more you know about yourself, the more you can do the right thing by your powers or weaknesses and save yourself troubles.
List of effective behaviours – small life-improving habits that add together to make awesomeness from nothing. And how to pick them up. Short list: toothbrush in the shower, scales in front of the fridge, healthy food in the most accessible position in the fridge, make the unhealthy stuff a little more inacessible, keep some clocks fast - i.e. the clock in your car (so you get there early), prepare for expected barriers ahead of time (i.e. packing the gym bag and leaving it at the door), and more.
Stress prevention checklist – feeling off? You want to have already outsourced the hard work for “things I should check on about myself” to your past self. Make it easier for future you. Especially in the times that you might be vulnerable. Generate a list of things that you want to check are working correctly. i.e. did I drink today? Did I do my regular exercise? Did I take my medication? Have I run late today? Do I have my work under control?
Make it easier for future you. Especially in the times that you might be vulnerable. – as its own post in curtailing bad habits that you can expect to happen when you are compromised. inspired by candy-bar moments and turning them into carrot-moments or other more productive things. This applies beyond diet, and might involve turning TV-hour into book-hour (for other tasks you want to do instead of tasks you automatically do)
A p=np approach to learning – Sometimes you have to learn things the long way; but sometimes there is a short cut. Where you could say, “I wish someone had just taken me on the easy path early on”. It’s not a perfect idea; but start looking for the shortcuts where you might be saying “I wish someone had told me sooner”. Of course the answer is, “but I probably wouldn’t have listened anyway” which is something that can be worked on as well. (2hrs)
Rationalists guide to dating – Attraction. Relationships. Doing things with a known preference. Don’t like unintelligent people? Don’t try to date them. Think first; then act - and iteratively experiment; an exercise in thinking hard about things before trying trial-and-error on the world. Think about places where you might meet the kinds of people you want to meet, then use strategies that go there instead of strategies that flop in the general direction of progress. (half written)
Training inherent powers (weights, temperatures, smells, estimation powers) – practice makes perfect right? Imagine if you knew the temperature always, the weight of things by lifting them, the composition of foods by tasting them, the distance between things without measuring. How can we train these, how can we improve. Probably not inherently useful to life, but fun to train your system 1! (2hrs)
Strike to the heart of the question. The strongest one; not the one you want to defeat – Steelman not Strawman. Don’t ask “how do I win at the question”; ask, “am I giving the best answer to the best question I can give”. More poetic than anything else - this post would enumerate the feelings of victory and what not to feel victorious about, as well as trying to feel what it's like to be on the other side of the discussion to yourself, frustratingly trying to get a point across while a point is being flung at yourself. (2hrs)
How to approach a new problem – similar to the “How to solve X” post. But considerations for working backwards from a wicked problem, as well as trying “The least bad solution I know of”, Murphy-jitsu, and known solutions to similar problems. Step 0. I notice I am approaching a problem.
Turning Stimming into a flourish – For autists, to make a presentability out of a flaw.
How to manage time – estimating the length of future tasks (and more), covered in notch system, and do tasks in a different order. But presented on it's own.
Spices – Adventures in sensory experience land. I ran an event of spice-smelling/guessing for a group of 30 people. I wrote several documents in the process about spices and how to run the event. I want to publish these. As an exercise - it's a fun game of guess-the-spice.
Wing it VS Plan – All of the what, why, who, and what you should do of the two. Some people seem to be the kind of person who is always just winging it. In contrast, some people make ridiculously complicated plans that work. Most of us are probably somewhere in the middle. I suggest that the more of a planner you can be the better because you can always fall back on winging it, and you probably will. But if you don't have a plan and are already winging it - you can't fall back on the other option. This concept came to me while playing ingress, which encourages you to plan your actions before you make them.
On-stage bias – The changes we make when we go onto a stage include extra makeup to adjust for the bright lights, and speaking louder to adjust for the audience which is far away. When we consider the rest of our lives, maybe we want to appear specifically X (i.e, confident, friendly) so we should change ourselves to suit the natural skews in how we present based on the "stage" we are appearing on. appear as the person you want to appear as, not the person you naturally appear as.
Creating a workspace – considerations when thinking about a “place” of work, including desk, screen, surrounding distractions, and basically any factors that come into it. Similar to how the very long list of sleep maintenance suggestions covers environmental factors in your sleep environment but for a workspace.
Posts added to the list since then
Doing a cost|benefit analysis - This is something we rely on when enumerating the options and choices ahead of us, but something I have never explicitly looked into. Some costs that can get overlooked include: Time, Money, Energy, Emotions, Space, Clutter, Distraction/Attention, Memory, Side effects, and probably more. I'd like to see a How to X guide for CBA. (wikipedia)
Extinction learning at home - A cross between intermittent reward (the worst kind of addiction), and what we know about extinguishing it. Then applying that to "convincing" yourself to extinguish bad habits by experiential learning. Uses the CFAR internal Double Crux technique, precommit yourself to a challenge, for example - "If I scroll through 20 facebook posts in a row and they are all not worth my time, I will be convinced that I should spend less time on facebook because it's not worth my time" Adjust 20 to whatever position your double crux believes to be true, then run a test and iterate. You have to genuinely agree with the premise before running the test. This can work for a number of committed habits which you want to extinguish. (new idea as at the writing of this post)
How to write a dating ad - A suggestion to include information that is easy to ask questions about (this is hard). For example; don't write, "I like camping", write "I like hiking overnight with my dog", giving away details in a way that makes them worth inquiring about. The same reason applies to why writing "I'm a great guy" is really not going to get people to believe you, as opposed to demonstrating the claim. (show, don't tell)
How to give yourself aversions - an investigation into aversive actions and potentially how to avoid collecting them when you have a better understanding of how they happen. (I have not done the research and will need to do that before publishing the post)
How to give someone else an aversion - similar to above, we know we can work differently to other people, and at the intersection of that is a misunderstanding that can leave people uncomfortable.
Lists - Creating lists is a great thing, currently in draft - some considerations about what lists are, what they do, what they are used for, what they can be used for, where they come in handy, and the suggestion that you should use lists more. (also some digital list-keeping solutions)
Choice to remember the details - this stems from choosing to remember names, a point in the conversation where people sometimes tune out. As a mindfulness concept you can choose to remember the details. (short article, not exactly sure why I wanted to write about this)
What is a problem - On the path of problem solving, understanding what a problem is will help you to understand how to attack it. Nothing more complicated than this picture to explain it. The barrier is a problem. This doesn't seem important on it's own but as a foundation for thinking about problems it's good to have sitting around somewhere.
How to/not attend a meetup - for anyone who has never been to a meetup, and anyone who wants the good tips on etiquette for being the new guy in a room of friends. First meetup: shut up and listen, try not to be too much of an impact on the existing meetup group or you might misunderstand the culture.
Noticing the world, Repercussions and taking advantage of them - There are regularly world events that I notice. Things like the olympics, Pokemon go coming out, the (recent) spaceX rocket failure. I try to notice when big events happen and try to think about how to take advantage of the event or the repercussions caused by that event. Motivated to think not only about all the olympians (and the fuss leading up to the olympics), but all the people at home who signed up to a gym because of the publicity of the competitive sport. If only I could get in on the profit of gym signups...
leastgood but only solution I know of - So you know of a solution, but it's rubbish. Or probably is. Also you have no better solutions. Treat this solution as the best solution you have (because it is) and start implementing it, as you do that - keep looking for other solutions. But at least you have a solution to work with!
Self-management thoughts - When you ask yourself, "am I making progress?", "do I want to be in this conversation?" and other self management thoughts. And an investigation into them - it's a CFAR technique but their writing on the topic is brief. (needs research)
instrumental supply-hoarding behaviour - A discussion about the benefits of hoarding supplies for future use. Covering also - what supplies are not a good idea to store, and what supplies are. Maybe this will be useful for people who store things for later days, and hopefully help to consolidate and add some purposefulness to their process.
list of sub groups that I have tried - Before running my local lesswrong group I partook in a great deal of other groups. This was meant as a list with comments on each group.
If you have nothing to do – make better tools for use when real work comes along - This was probably going to be a poetic style motivation post about exactly what the title suggests. Be Prepared.
what other people are good at (as support) - When reaching out for support, some people will be good at things that other people are not. For example - emotional support, time to spend on each other, ideas for solving your problems. Different people might be better or worse than others. Thinking about this can make your strategies towards solving your problems a bit easier to manage. Knowing what works and what does not work, or what you can reliably expect when you reach out for support from some people - is going to supercharge your fulfilment of those needs.
Focusing - An already written guide to Eugine Gendlin's focusing technique. That needs polishing before publishing. The short form: treat your system 1 as a very powerful machine that understands your problems and their solutions more than you do; use your system 2 to ask it questions and see what it returns.
Rewrite: how to become a 1000 year old vampire - I got as far as breaking down this post and got stuck at draft form before rewriting. Might take another stab at it soon.
Should you tell people your goals? - This thread in a post. In summary: It depends on the environment, the wrong environment is actually demotivational, the right environment is extra motivational.
Meta: this took around 4 hours to write up. Which is ridiculously longer than usual. I noticed a substantial number of breaks being taken - not sure if that relates to the difficulty of creating so many summaries or just me today. Still. This experiment might help my future writing focus/direction so I figured I would try it out. If you see an idea of particularly high value I will be happy to try to cover it in more detail.
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The application of the secretary problem to real life dating
The following problem is best when not described by me:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_problem
Although there are many variations, the basic problem can be stated as follows:
There is a single secretarial position to fill.
There are n applicants for the position, and the value of n is known.
The applicants, if seen altogether, can be ranked from best to worst unambiguously.
The applicants are interviewed sequentially in random order, with each order being equally likely.
Immediately after an interview, the interviewed applicant is either accepted or rejected, and the decision is irrevocable.
The decision to accept or reject an applicant can be based only on the relative ranks of the applicants interviewed so far.
The objective of the general solution is to have the highest probability of selecting the best applicant of the whole group. This is the same as maximizing the expected payoff, with payoff defined to be one for the best applicant and zero otherwise.
Application
After reading that you can probably see the application to real life. There are a series of bad and good assumptions following, some are fair, some are not going to be representative of you. I am going to try to name them all as I go so that you can adapt them with better ones for yourself. Assuming that you plan to have children and you will probably be doing so like billions of humans have done so far in a monogamous relationship while married (the entire set of assumptions does not break down for poly relationships or relationship-anarchy, but it gets more complicated). These assumptions help us populate the Secretary problem with numbers in relation to dating for the purpose of children.
If you assume that a biological female's clock ends at 40. (in that its hard and not healthy for the baby if you try to have a kid past that age), that is effectively the end of the pure and simple biological purpose of relationships. (environment, IVF and adoption aside for a moment). (yes there are a few more years on that)
For the purpose of this exercise – as a guy – you can add a few years for the potential age gap you would tolerate. (i.e. my parents are 7 years apart, but that seems like a big understanding and maturity gap – they don't even like the same music), I personally expect I could tolerate an age gap of 4-5 years.
If you make the assumption that you start your dating life around the ages of 16-18. that gives you about [40-18=22] 22-24 (+5 for me as a male), years of expected dating potential time.
If you estimate the number of kids you want to have, and count either:
3 years for each kid OR
2 years for each kid (+1 kid – AKA 2 years)
(Twins will throw this number off, but estimate that they take longer to recover from, or more time raising them to manageable age before you have time to have another kid)
My worked example is myself – as a child of 3, with two siblings of my own I am going to plan to have 3 children. Or 8-9 years of child-having time. If we subtract that from the number above we end up with 11-16 (16-21 for me being a male) years of dating time.
Also if you happen to know someone with a number of siblings (or children) and a family dynamic that you like; then you should consider that number of children for yourself. Remember that as a grown-up you are probably travelling through the world with your siblings beside you. Which can be beneficial (or detrimental) as well, I would be using the known working model of yourself or the people around you to try to predict whether you will benefit or be at a disadvantage by having siblings. As they say; You can't pick your family - for better and worse. You can pick your friends, if you want them to be as close as a default family - that connection goes both ways - it is possible to cultivate friends that are closer than some families. However you choose to live your life is up to you.
Assume that once you find the right person - getting married (the process of organising a wedding from the day you have the engagement rings on fingers); and falling pregnant (successfully starting a viable pregnancy) takes at least a year. Maybe two depending on how long you want to be "we just got married and we aren't having kids just yet". It looks like 9-15 (15-20 for male adjusted) years of dating.
With my 9-15 years; I estimate a good relationship of working out whether I want to marry someone, is between 6 months and 2 years, (considering as a guy I will probably be proposing and putting an engagement ring on someone's finger - I get higher say about how long this might take than my significant other does.), (This is about the time it takes to evaluate whether you should put the ring on someone's finger). For a total of 4 serious relationships on the low and long end and 30 serious relationships on the upper end. (7-40 male adjusted relationships)
Of course that's not how real life works. Some relationships will be longer and some will be shorter. I am fairly confident that all my relationships will fall around those numbers.
I have a lucky circumstance; I have already had a few serious relationships (substitute your own numbers in here). With my existing relationships I can estimate how long I usually spend in a relationship. (2year + 6 year + 2month + 2month /4 = 2.1 years). Which is to say that I probably have a maximum and total of around 7-15 relationships before I gotta stop expecting to have kids, or start compromising on having 3 kids.
A solution to the secretary equation
A known solution that gives you the best possible candidate the most of the time is to try out 1/e candidates (or roughly 36%), then choose the next candidate that is better than the existing candidates. For my numbers that means to go through 3-7 relationships and then choose the next relationship that is better than all the ones before.
I don't quite like that. It depends on how big your set is; as to what the chance of you having the best candidate in the first 1/e trials and then sticking it out till the last candidate, and settling on them. (this strategy has a ((1/n)*(1/e)) chance of just giving you the last person in the set - which is another opportunity cost risk - what if they are rubbish? Compromise on the age gap, the number of kids or the partners quality...) If the set is 7, the chance that the best candidate is in the first 1/e is 5.26% (if the set is 15 - the chance is much lower at 2.45%).
Opportunity cost
Each further relationship you have might be costing you another 2 years to get further out of touch with the next generation (kids these days!) I tend to think about how old I will be when my kids are 15-20 am I growing rapidly out of touch with the next younger generation? Two years is a very big opportunity spend - another 2 years could see you successfully running a startup and achieving lifelong stability at the cost of the opportunity to have another kid. I don't say this to crush you with fear of inaction; but it should factor in along with other details of your situation.
A solution to the risk of having the best candidate in your test phase; or to the risk of lost opportunity - is to lower the bar; instead of choosing the next candidate that is better than all the other candidates; choose the next candidate that is better than 90% of the candidates so far. Incidentally this probably happens in real life quite often. In a stroke of, "you'll do"...
Where it breaks down
Real life is more complicated than that. I would like to think that subsequent relationships that I get into will already not suffer the stupid mistakes of the last ones; As well as the potential opportunity cost of exploration. The more time you spend looking for different partners – you might lose your early soul mate, or might waste time looking for a better one when you can follow a "good enough" policy. No one likes to know they are "good enough", but we do race the clock in our lifetimes. Life is what happens when you are busy making plans.
As someone with experience will know - we probably test and rule out bad partners in a single conversation, where we don't even get so far as a date. Or don't last more than a week. (I. E the experience set is growing through various means).
People have a tendency to overrate the quality of a relationship while they are in it, versus the ones that already failed.
Did I do something wrong?
“I got married early - did I do something wrong (or irrational)?”
No. equations are not real life. It might have been nice to have the equation, but you obviously didn't need it. Also this equation assumes a monogamous relationship. In real life people have overlapping relationships, you can date a few people and you can be poly. These are all factors that can change the simple assumptions of the equation.
Where does the equation stop working?
Real life is hard. It doesn't fall neatly into line, it’s complicated, it’s ugly, it’s rough and smooth and clunky. But people still get by. Don’t be afraid to break the rule.
Disclaimer: If this equation is the only thing you are using to evaluate a relationship - it’s not going to go very well for you. I consider this and many other techniques as part of my toolbox for evaluating decisions.
Should I break up with my partner?
What? no! Following an equation is not a good reason to live your life.
Does your partner make you miserable? Then yes you should break up.
Do you feel like they are not ready to have kids yet and you want to settle down? Tough call. Even if they were agents also doing the equation; An equation is not real life. Go by your brain; go by your gut. Don’t go by just one equation.
Expect another post soon about reasonable considerations that should be made when evaluating relationships.
The given problem makes the assumption that you are able to evaluate partners in the sense that the secretary problem expects. Humans are not all strategic and can’t really do that. This is why the world is not going to perfectly follow this equation. Life is complicated; there are several metrics that make a good partner and they don’t always trade off between one another.
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Meta: writing time - 3 hours over a week; 5+ conversations with people about the idea, bothering a handful of programmers and mathematicians for commentary on my thoughts, and generally a whole bunch of fun talking about it. This post was started on the slack channel when someone asked a related question.
My table of contents for other posts in my series.
Let me know if this post was helpful or if it worked for you or why not.
Visions and Mirages: The Sunk Cost Dilemma
Summary
How should a rational agent handle the Sunk Cost Dilemma?
Introduction
You have a goal, and set out to achieve it. Step by step, iteration by iteration, you make steady progress towards completion - but never actually get any closer. You're deliberately not engaging in the sunk cost fallacy - at no point does the perceived cost of completion get higher. But at each step, you discover another step you didn't originally anticipate, and had no priors for anticipating.
You're rational. You know you shouldn't count sunk costs in the total cost of the project. But you're now into twice as much effort as you would have originally invested, and have done everything you originally thought you'd need to do, but have just as much work ahead of you as when you started.
Worse, each additional step is novel; the additional five steps you discovered after completing step 6 didn't add anything to predict the additional twelve steps you added after completing step 19. And after step 35, when you discovered another step, you updated your priors with your incorrect original estimate - and the project is still worth completing. Over and over. All you can conclude is that your original priors were unreliable. Each update to your priors, however, doesn't change the fact that the remaining cost is always worth paying to complete the project.
You are starting to feel like you are caught in a penny auction for your time.
When do you give up your original goal as a mirage? At what point do you give up entirely?
Solutions
The trivial option is to just keep going. Sometimes this is the only viable strategy; if your goal is mandatory, and there are no alternative solutions to consider. There's no guarantee you'll finish in any finite amount of time, however.
One option is to precommit; set a specific level of effort you're willing to engage in before stopping progress, and possibly starting over from scratch if relevant. When bugfixing someone else's code on a deadline, my personal policy is to set aside enough time at the end of the deadline to write the code from scratch and debug that (the code I write is not nearly as buggy as that which I'm usually working on). Commitment of this sort can work in situations in which there are alternative solutions or when the goal is disposable.
Another option is to discount sunk costs, but include them; updating your priors is one way of doing this, but isn't guaranteed to successfully navigate you through the dilemma.
Unfortunately, there isn't a general solution. If there were, IT would be a very different industry.
Summary
The Sunk Cost Fallacy is best described as a frequently-faulty heuristic. There are game-theoretic ways of extracting value from those who follow a strict policy of avoiding engaging in the Sunk Cost Fallacy which happen all the time in IT - frequent requirement changes to fixed-cost projects are a good example (which can go both ways, actually, depending on how the contract and requirements are structured). It is best to always have an exit policy prepared.
Related Less Wrong Post Links
http://lesswrong.com/lw/at/sunk_cost_fallacy/ - A description of the Sunk Cost Fallacy
http://lesswrong.com/lw/9si/is_sunk_cost_fallacy_a_fallacy/ - Arguments that the Sunk Cost Fallacy may be misrepresented
http://lesswrong.com/lw/9jy/sunk_costs_fallacy_fallacy/ - The Sunk Cost Fallacy can be easily used to rationalize giving up
ETA: Post Mortem
Since somebody has figured out the game now, an explanation: Everybody who spent time writing a comment insisting you -could- get the calculations correct, and the imaginary calculations were simply incorrect? I mugged you. The problem is in doing the calculations -instead of- trying to figure out what was actually going on. You forgot there was another agent in the system with different objectives from your own. Here, I mugged you for a few seconds or maybe minutes of your time; in real life, that would be hours, weeks, months, or your money, as you keep assuming that it's your own mistake.
Maybe it is a buggy open-source library that has a bug-free proprietary version you pay for - get you in the door, then charge you money when it's more expensive to back out than to continue. Maybe it's somebody who silently and continually moves work to your side of the fence on a collaborative project, when it's more expensive to back out than to continue. Not counting all your costs opens you up to exploitative behaviors which add costs at the back-end.
In this case I was able to mug you in part because you didn't like the hypothetical, and fought it. Fighting the hypothetical will always reveal something about yourself - in this case, fighting the hypothetical revealed that you were exploitable.
In real life I'd be able to mug you because you'd assume someone had fallen prone to the Planning Fallacy, as you assumed must have happened in the hypothetical. In the case of the hypothetical, an evil god - me - was deliberately manipulating events so that the project would never be completed (Notice what role the -author- of that hypothetical played in that hypothetical, and what role -you- played?). In real life, you don't need evil gods - just other people who see you as an exploitable resource, and will keep mugging you until you catch on to what they're doing.
Singularity Cost
I don’t think that AI is an existential risk. It is going to be more of a golden opportunity. For some not for all.
Given that most people oppose AI on various basis (religious, economic) chances are it will be implemented in a small group, and very few people will get to benefit from it. Wealthy people would probably be the first to use it.
This isn’t a regular technology and it will not go first to the rich and then to everybody else, like it happened with the phones or computers in a couple of decades. This is where Kurzweil is wrong.
Can someone imagine the dynamics of a group that has access to AI for 20-30 years?
I doubt that after 20 or 30 years, heck even after 10 years, they would need any money so the assumption that it will be shared with the rest of the world for financial reasons doesn’t seem founded.
So I am trying to save and figure what would be the cost of entry in this club.
Any thoughts on that?
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