A putative new idea for AI control; index here. See also Utility vs Probability: idea synthesis.

Ok, here is the problem:

• You have to create an AI that believes (or acts as if it believed) that event X is almost certain, while you believe that X is almost impossible. Furthermore, you have to be right. To make things more interesting, the AI is much smarter than you, knows everything that you do (and more), and has to react sensibly when event X doesn't happen.

Answers will be graded on mathematics, style, colours of ink, and compatibility with the laws of physics. Also, penmanship. How could you achieve this?

This is thread where I'm trying to figure out a few things about signalling on LessWrong and need some information, so please immediately after reading about the two individuals please answer the poll. The two individuals:

A. Sees that an interpretation of reality shared by others is not correct, but tries to pretend otherwise for personal gain and/or safety.

B. Fails to see that an interpretation of reality is shared by others is flawed. He is therefore perfectly honest in sharing the interpretation of reality with others. The reward regime for outward behaviour is the same as with A.

To add a trivial inconvenience that matches the inconvenience of answering the poll before reading on, comments on what I think the two individuals signal,what the trade off is and what I speculate the results might be here versus the general population, is behind this link.