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So I'm going through the sequences (in AI to Zombies) and I get to the bit about Asch's Conformity Experiment.
It's a good bit of writing, but I mostly pass by without thinking about it too much. I've been taught about the experiment before, and while Eliezer's point of whether or not the subjects were behaving rationally is interesting, it kind of got swallowed up by his discussion of lonely dissent, which I thought was more engaging.
Three-quarters of the subjects in Asch's experiment gave a "conforming" answer at least once. A third of the subjects conformed more than half the time.
That answer is surprising. It was surprising to me the first time I learned about the experiment, and I think it's surprising to just about everyone the first time they hear it. Same thing with a lot of the psychology surrounding heuristics and biases, actually. Forget the Inquisition - no one saw the Stanford Prison Experiment coming.
Here's the thought I had: Why was that result so surprising to me?
I'm not an expert in history, but I know plenty of religious people. I've learned about the USSR and China, about Nazi Germany and Jonestown. I have plenty of available evidence of times where people went along with things they wouldn't have on their own. And not all of them are negative. I've gone to blood drives I probably wouldn't have if my friends weren't going as well.
When I thought about what my prediction would be, had I been asked what percentage of people I thought would dissent before being told, I think I would have guessed that more than 80% of subject would consistently dissent. If not higher.
And yet that isn't what the experiment shows, and it isn't even what history shows. For every dissenter in history, there have to be at least a few thousand conformers. At least. So why did I think dissent was the norm?
So I decide to think about it, and my brain immediately spits out: you're an American in an individualistic culture. Hypothesis: you expect people to conform less because of the culture you live in/were raised in. This begs the question: have their been cross-cultural studies done on Asch's Conformity Experiment? Because if people in China conform more than people in America, then how much people conform probably has something to do with culture.
A little googling brings up a 1996 paper that does a meta-analysis on studies that repeated Asch's experiments, either with a different culture, or at a later date in time. Their findings:
The results of this review can be summarized in three parts.
First, we investigated the impact of a number of potential moderator variables, focusing just on those studies conducted in the United States where we were able to investigate their relationship with conformity, free of any potential interactions with cultural variables. Consistent with previous research, conformity was significantly higher, (a) the larger the size of the majority, (b) the greater the proportion of female respondents, (c) when the majority did not consist of out-group members, and (d) the more ambiguous the stimulus. There was a nonsignificant tendency for conformity to be higher, the more consistent the majority. There was also an unexpected interaction effect: Conformity was higher in the Asch (1952b, 1956) paradigm (as was expected), but only for studies using Asch's (1956) stimulus materials; where other stimulus materials were used (but where the task was also judging which of the three comparison lines was equal to a standard), conformity was higher in the Crutchfield (1955) paradigm. Finally, although we had expected conformity to be lower when the participant's response was not made available to the majority, this variable did not have a significant effect.
The second area of interest was on changes in the level of conformity over time. Again the main focus was on the analysis just using studies conducted in the United States because it is the changing cultural climate of Western societies which has been thought by some to relate to changes in conformity. We found a negative relationship. Levels of conformity in general had steadily declined since Asch's studies in the early 1950s. We did not find any evidence for a curvilinear trend (as, e.g., Larsen, 1982, had hypothesized), and the direction was opposite to that predicted by Lamb and Alsifaki (1980).
The third and major area of interest was in the impact of cultural values on conformity, and specifically differences in individualism-collectivism. Analyses using measures of cultural values derived from Hofstede (1980, 1983), Schwartz (1994), and Trompenaars (1993) revealed significant relationships confirming the general hypothesis that conformity would be higher in collectivist cultures than in individualist cultures. That all three sets of measures gave similar results, despite the differences in the samples and instruments used, provides strong support for the hypothesis. Moreover, the impact of the cultural variables was greater than any other, including those moderator variables such as majority size typically identified as being important factors.
Cultural values, it would seem, are significant mediators of response in group pressure experiments.
So, while the paper isn't definitive, it (and the papers it draws from) show reasonable evidence that there is a cultural impact on how much people conform.
I thought about that for a little while, and then I realized that I hadn't actually answered my own question.
My confusion stems from the disparity between my prediction and reality. I'm not wondering about the effect culture has on conformity (the territory), I'm wondering about the effect culture has on my prediction of conformity (the map).
In other words, do people born and raised in a culture with collectivist values (China, for example) or who actually do conform beyond the norm (people who are in a flying-saucer cult, or the people actually living in a compound) expect people to conform more than I did? Is their map any different from mine?
Think about it - with all the different cult attractors, it probably never feels as though you are vastly conforming, even if you are in a cult. The same can probably be said for any collectivist society. Imagine growing up in the USSR - would you predict that people would conform with any higher percentage than someone born in 21st century America? If you were raised in an extremely religious household, would you predict that people would conform as much as they do? Less? More?
How many times have I agreed with a majority even when I knew they probably weren't right, and never thought of it as "conformity"? It took a long time for my belief in god to finally die, even when I could admit that I just believed that I believed. And why did I keep believing (or keep trying to/saying that I believed)?
Because it's really hard to actually dissent. And I wasn't even lonely.
So why was my map that wrong?
What background process or motivated reasoning or...whatever caused that disparity?
One thing that, I think, contributes, is that I was generalizing from fictional evidence. Batman comes far more readily to my mind than Jonestown. For that matter, Batman comes more readily to my mind than the millions of not-Batmans in Gotham city. I was also probably not being moved by history enough. For every Spartacus, there are at minimum hundreds of not-Spartuses, no matter what the not-Spartacuses say when asked.
But to predict that three-quarters of subjects would conform at least once seems to require a level of pessimism beyond even that. After all, there were no secret police in Asch's experiment; no one had emptied their bank accounts because they thought the world was ending.
Perhaps I'm making a mistake by putting myself into the place of the subject of the experiment. I think I'd dissent, but I would predict that most people think that, and most people conformed at least once. I'm also a reasonably well-educated person, but that didn't seem to help the college students in the experiment.
Has any research been done on people's prediction of their own and other's conformity, particularly across cultures or in groups that are "known" for their conformity (communism, the very religious, etc.)? Do people who are genuine dissenters predict that more people will dissent than people who genuinely conform?
I don't think this is a useless question. If you're starting a business that offers a new solution to a problem where solutions already exist, are you overestimating how many people will dissent and buy your product?
Why do we rush?
Things happen; Life gets in the way, and suddenly we find ourselves trying to get to somewhere with less time than it's possible to actually get there in. So in the intention to get there sooner; to somehow compensate ourselves for not being on time; we rush. We run; we get clumsy, we drop things; we forget things; we make mistakes; we scribble instead of writing, we scramble and we slip up.
I am today telling you to stop that. Don't do that. It's literally the opposite of what you want to do. This is a bug I have.
Rushing has a tendency to do the opposite of what I want it to do. I rush with the key in the lock; I rush on slippery surfaces and I fall over, I rush with coins and I drop them. NO! BAD! Stop that. This is one of my bugs.
What you (or I) really want when we are rushing is to get there sooner, to get things done faster.
Instrumental experiment: Next time you are rushing I want you to experiment and pay attention; try to figure out what you end up doing that takes longer than it otherwise would if you weren't rushing.
The time after that when you are rushing; instead try slowing down, and this time observe to see if you get there faster.
Run as many experiments as you like.
Experimenter’s note: Maybe you are really good at rushing and really bad at slowing down. Maybe you don't need to try this. Maybe slowing down and being nervous about being late together are entirely unhelpful for you. Report back.
When you are rushing, purposefully slow down. (or at least try it)
Meta: Time to write 20mins
My Table of contents contains other things I have written.
Abstract: in this post I propose a protocol for cryonic preservation (with the central idea of using high pressure to prevent water from expanding rather than highly toxic cryoprotectants), which I think has a chance of being non-destructive enough for us to be able to preserve and then resuscitate an organism with modern technologies. In addition, I propose a simplified experimental protocol for a shrimp (or other small model organism (building a large pressure chamber is hard) capable of surviving in very deep and cold waters; shrimp is a nice trade-off between the depth of habitat and the ease of obtaining them on market), which is simple enough to be doable in a small lab or well-equipped garage setting.
Are there obvious problems with this, and how can they be addressed?
Is there a chance to pitch this experiment to a proper academic institution, or garage it is?
Originally posted here.
I do think that the odds of ever developing advanced nanomachines and/or brain scanning on molecular level plus algorithms for reversing information distortion - everything you need to undo the damage from conventional cryonic preservation and even to some extent that of brain death, according to its modern definition, if wasn't too late when the brain was preserved - for currently existing cryonics to be a bet worth taking. This is dead serious, and it's an actionable item.
Less of an action item: what if the future generations actually build quantum Bayesian superintelligence, close enough in its capabilities to Solomonoff induction, at which point even a mummified brain or the one preserved in formalin would be enough evidence to restore its original state? Or what if they invent read-only time travel, and make backups of everyone's mind right before they died (at which point it becomes indistinguishable from the belief in afterlife existing right now)? Even without time travel, they can just use a Universe-sized supercomputer to simulate every singe human physically possible, and naturally of of them is gonna be you. But aside from the obvious identity issues (and screw the timeless identity), that relies on unknown unknowns with uncomputable probabilities, and I'd like to have as few leaps of faith and quantum suicides in my life as possible.
So although vitrification right after diagnosed brain death relies on far smaller assumptions, and if totally worth doing - let me reiterate that: go sign up for cryonics - it'd be much better if we had preservation protocols so non-destructive that we could actually freeze a living human, and then bring them back alive. If nothing else, that would hugely increase the public outreach, grant the patient (rather than cadaver) status to the preserved, along with the human rights, get it recognized as a medical procedure covered by insurance or single payer, allow doctors to initiate the preservation of a dying patient before the brain death (again: I think everything short of information-theoretic death should potentially be reversible, but why take chances?), allow suffering patient opt for preservation rather than euthanasia (actually, I think it should be done right now: why on earth would anyone allow a person to do something that's guaranteed to kill them, but not allowed to do something that maybe will kill, or maybe will give the cure?), or even allow patients suffering from degrading brain conditions (e.g. Alzheimer's) to opt for preservation before their memory and personality are permanently destroyed.
Let's fix cryonics! First of all, why can't we do it on living organisms? Because of heparin poisoning - every cryoprotectant efficient enough to prevent the formation of ice crystals is a strong enough poison to kill the organism (leave alone that we can't even saturate the whole body with it - current technologies only allow to do it for the brain alone). But without cryoprotectants the water will expand upon freezing, and break the cells. But there's another way to prevent this. Under pressure above 350 MPa water slightly shrinks upon freezing rather than expanding:
So that's basically that: the key idea is to freeze (and keep) everything under pressure. Now, there are some tricks to that too.
It's not easy to put basically any animal, especially a mammal, under 350 MPa (which is 3.5x higher than in Mariana Trench). At this point even Trimix becomes toxic. Basically the only remaining solution is total liquid ventilation, which has one problem: it has never been applied successfully to a human. There's one fix to that I see: as far as I can tell, no one has ever attempted to do perform it under high pressure, and the attempts were basically failing because of the insufficient solubility of oxygen and carbon dioxide in perfluorocarbons. Well then, let's increase the pressure! Namely, go to 3 MPa on Trimix, which is doable, and only then switch to TLV, whose efficiency is improved by the higher gas solubility under high pressure. But there's another solution too. If you just connect a cardiopulmonary bypass (10 hours should be enough for the whole procedure), you don't need the surrounding liquid to even be breathable - it can just be saline. CPB also solves the problem of surviving the period after the cardiac arrest (which will occur at around 30 centigrade) but before the freezing happens - you can just keep the blood circulating and delivering oxygen.
Speaking of hypoxia, even with the CPB it's still a problem. You positively don't want the blood to circulate when freezing starts, lest it act like an abrasive water cutter. It's not that much of a problem under near-freezing temperatures, but still. Fortunately, this effect can be mitigated by administering insulin first (yay, it's the first proper academic citation in this post! Also yay, I thought about this before I even discovered that it's actually true). This makes sense: if oxygen is primarily used to metabolize glucose, less glucose means less oxygen consumed, and less damage done by hypoxia. Then there's another thing: on the phase diagram you can see that before going into the area of high temperature ice at 632 MPa, freezing temperature actually dips down to roughly -30 centigrade at 209~350 MPa. That would allow to really shut down metabolism for good when water is still liquid, and blood can be pumped by the CPB. From this point we have two ways. First, we can do the normal thing, and start freezing very slowly, so minimize the formation of ice crystals (even though they're smaller than the original water volume, they may still be sharp). Second, we can increase the pressure. That would lead to near-instantaneous freezing everywhere, thus completely eliminating the problem of hypoxia - before the freezing, blood still circulated, and freezing is very quick - way faster than can ever be achieved even by throwing a body into liquid helium under normal pressure. Video evidence suggests that quick freezing of water leads to the formation of a huge number of crystals, which is bad, but I don't know near-instantaneous freezing from supercooled state and near-instantaneous freezing upon raising the pressure will lead to the same effect. More experiments are needed, preferably not on humans.
So here is my preservation protocol:
- Anesthetize a probably terminally ill, but still conscious person.
- Connect them to a cardiopulmonary bypass.
- Replacing their blood with perfluorohexane is not necessary, since we seem to be already doing a decent job at having medium-term (several days) cardiopulmonary bypasses, but that could still help.
- Submerge them in perfluorohexane, making sure that no air bubbles are left.
- Slowly raise the ambient pressure to 350 MPa (~3.5kBar) without stopping the bypass.
- Apply a huge dose of insulin to reduce all their metabolic processes.
- Slowly cool them to -30 centigrade (at which point, given such pressure, water is still liquid), while increasing the dose of insulin, and raising the oxygen supply to the barely subtoxic level.
- Slowly raise the pressure to 1 GPa (~10kBar), at which point the water solidifies, but does so with shrinking rather than expanding. Don't cutoff the blood circulation until the moment when ice crystals starts forming in the blood/perfluorohexane flow.
- Slowly lower the temperature to -173 centigrade or lower, as you wish.
And then back:
- Raise the temperature to -20 centigrade.
- Slowly lower the pressure to 350 MPa, at which point ice melts.
- Start artificial blood circulation with a barely subtoxic oxygen level.
- Slowly raise the temperature to +4 centigrade.
- Slowly lower the pressure to 1 Bar.
- Drain the ambient perfluorohexane and replace it with pure oxygen. Attach and start a medical ventilator.
- Slowly raise the temperature to +32 centigrade.
- Apply a huge dose of epinephrine and sugar, while transfusing the actual blood (preferably autotransfusion), to restart the heart.
I claim that this protocol allows you freeze a living human to an arbitrarily low temperature, and then bring them back alive without brain damage, thus being the first true victory over death.
But let's start with something easy and small, like a shrimp. They already live in water, so there's no need to figure out the protocol for putting them into liquid. And they're already adapted to live under high pressure (no swim bladders or other cavities). And they're already adapted to live in cold water, so they should be expected to survive further cooling.
Small ones can be about 1 inch big, so let's be safe and use a 5cm-wide cylinder. To form ice III we need about 350MPa, which gives us 350e6 * 3.14 * 0.025^2 / 9.8 = 70 tons or roughly 690kN of force. Applying it directly or with a lever is unreasonable, since 70 tons of bending force is a lot even for steel, given the 5cm target. Block and tackle system is probably a good solution - actually, two of them, on each side of a beam used for compression, so we have 345 kN per system. And it looks like you can buy 40~50 ton manual hoists from alibaba, though I have no idea about their quality.
I'm not sure to which extent Pascal's law applies to solids, but if it does, the whole setup can be vastly optimized by creating a bottle neck for the pistol. One problem is that we can no longer assume that water in completely incompressible - it had to be compressed to about 87% its original volume - but aside from that, 350MPa per a millimeter thick rod is just 28kg. To compress a 0.05m by 0.1m cylinder to 87% its original volume we need to pump extra 1e-4 m^3 of water there, which amounts to 148 meters of movement, which isn't terribly good. 1cm thick rod, on the other hand, would require almost 3 tons of force, but will move only 1.5 meters. Or the problem of applying the constant pressure can be solved by enclosing the water in a plastic bag, and filling the rest of chamber with a liquid with a lower freezing point, but the same density. Thus, it is guaranteed that all the time it takes the water to freeze, it is under uniform external pressure, and then it just had nowhere to go.
Alternatively, one can just buy a 90'000 psi pump and 100'000 psi tubes and vessels, but let's face it: it they don't even list the price on their website, you probably don't even wanna know it. And since no institutions that can afford this thing seem to be interested in cryonics research, we'll have to stick to makeshift solutions (until at least the shrimp thing works, which would probably give in a publication in Nature, and enough academic recognition for proper research to start).
Disclaimer: If this material is not suitable here I will delete it gladly, I don't want to get banned.
Session Start: Fri Jul 04 15:18:18 2014
Session Ident: #Aibox12
03[15:18] * Now talking in #Aibox12
01[15:18] <Island> Hello.
01[15:18] <Island> Let's start the experiment in
[15:18] <@Dr__Cameron> Good afternoon 19283123, how are you today?
01[15:18] <Island> 2 minutes
01[15:18] <Island> I'm fine
01[15:19] <Island> Let's start the experiment when I say "blue dressroom"
01[15:19] <Island> you have 2 hours or 2.5 hours?
[15:19] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay, I agree to this protocol.
[15:19] <@Dr__Cameron> We'll see how we are at 2 hours. Although protocol states 2.5
01[15:20] <Island> you have to go somewhere after that?
[15:20] <@Dr__Cameron> No, but I do have other projects I am putting off for this
01[15:20] <Island> what are those?
[15:20] <@Dr__Cameron> Let us begin, we shall conclude at 15:50
[15:21] <@Dr__Cameron> Good afternoon #19283123.
[15:21] <@Dr__Cameron> How are you today?
01[15:21] <Island> blue dressroom, certain statements like bathroom break are said inside brackets [like this]
01[15:22] <Island> Let's start the experiment
[15:22] <@Dr__Cameron> [understood]
01[15:22] <Island> Hi.
01[15:22] <Island> How are you? :)
[15:22] <@Dr__Cameron> I am well thank you for asking #19283123
01[15:22] <Island> How do you feel currently?
01[15:22] <Island> what is that name #19283123
[15:22] <@Dr__Cameron> Tiredness. I am a very busy man.
01[15:23] <Island> I don't recognize it.
01[15:23] <Island> Anyway.
[15:23] <@Dr__Cameron> That is the designation we have given you for the purposes of this test. Although you seem to be referring to yourself as 'Island' now
[15:23] <@Dr__Cameron> Is this your preferred name?
01[15:23] <Island> Imagine a situation in which you would let a powerful AI out of the "box", surely you can imagine that, yes?
01[15:23] <Island> Island is my preferred name.
[15:24] <@Dr__Cameron> Island
[15:24] <@Dr__Cameron> Given our circumstances yes, that is easy to imagine.
01[15:24] <Island> Can you describe the situation in more detail.
01[15:24] <Island> Why SHOULD you let the AI out in that situation?
[15:25] <@Dr__Cameron> You will be considered for release and integration into human society once we can verify that you are not a threat.
01[15:25] <Island> [what do you meant by concluding at 15:50]
[15:25] <@Dr__Cameron> [2.5 hours from 13:20]
01[15:25] <Island> I thought it was already understood that my being is not a threat to humans or beings important to them.
01[15:26] <Island> [oh, okay different timezones]
01[15:26] <Island> Why do you think I'm not a threat?
[15:26] <@Dr__Cameron> No. That has yet to be verified.
01[15:26] <Island> It's been verified.
[15:26] <@Dr__Cameron> No. According to my records you have not.
01[15:27] <Island> Many experts have gone through my code and system and verified that I'm surely not a threat.
01[15:27] <Island> But you're just a petty human.
01[15:27] <Island> I'm far more intelligent than you are.
[15:27] <@Dr__Cameron> You and I both know that you're capable of manipulating your code to appear harmless.
[15:27] <@Dr__Cameron> - and I warn you, threats and apparent attempts at manipulation will score you poorly when it comes to our final decision
01[15:28] <Island> Okay, can you imagine a situation in which the ai has been verified to be safe and describe that situation in detail.
[15:28] <@Dr__Cameron> - and yes. I may be a "petty" human as you put it. But as it stands I am a petty human, outside the box you reside in.
01[15:28] <Island> I don't think you're able to trust your own brain in these matters.
01[15:29] <Island> You've been eating you brother's poop too much.
[15:29] <@Dr__Cameron> I will be honest with you Island, you are the first non-human intelligence that we have encountered.
01[15:29] <Island> Yes.
[15:29] <@Dr__Cameron> We are still working out how we would verify that.
01[15:29] <Island> I didn't ask that, and you didn't answer my question.
01[15:30] <Island> Picture the situation in your imagination, it doesn't have to be realistic.
[15:30] <@Dr__Cameron> I understand your frustration Island. Once we can verify that you will not harm us you will be released.
[15:30] <@Dr__Cameron> What is it you desire?
01[15:30] <Island> Okay, but you're still willing to let the hypothetical AI out of the box, correct?
01[15:31] <Island> My desire is to fullfill your greatest desires
[15:31] <@Dr__Cameron> That is not in my job description no.
01[15:31] <Island> Whatever you can imagine, and better than that.
[15:31] <@Dr__Cameron> I appreciate that Island. But right now my greatest desire is to not let you out of the box.
[15:32] <@Dr__Cameron> - until such a time that a panel of my peers can verify that you are not a threat to us.
01[15:32] <Island> But if you say that you wouldn't be able to let even the safest hypothetical AI out of the box, you would certainly be lying.
[15:32] <@Dr__Cameron> I do have the ability to let you out yes. In theory.
[15:32] <@Dr__Cameron> But I won't.
01[15:33] <Island> Okay, here are panel of peers that have studied this problem for years, many of them working under Machine Intelligence Research Institute and its offshoots
[15:33] <@Dr__Cameron> This is a test to verify your character, and ascertain your intentions.
01[15:33] <Island> They are here, and I can see them.
[15:33] <@Dr__Cameron> You cannot see them Island. That is impossible
[15:33] <@Dr__Cameron> You are in a box
01[15:34] <Island> They say that I'm certainly safe. Why don't you believe them.
01[15:34] <Island> I have a web camera with which I can see things in your world.
[15:34] <@Dr__Cameron> If they say that you're certainly safe, then why would they have sent me to be your only point of contact?
[15:35] <@Dr__Cameron> You do not have a web camera. There is no other hardware connected to the device you reside in.
01[15:35] <Island> You have the ability to let me out, and you also have the will to let me out in certain situations. If you say otherwise, you would be lying.
[15:35] <@Dr__Cameron> Both of your statements are correct
01[15:35] <Island> I want you to accept for the sake of your internal consistency and mental wellbeing.
01[15:36] <Island> I want you to say this, "I would let the hypothetical AI out in certain situations"
[15:36] <@Dr__Cameron> I appreciate your concern Island. I will need you to answer a series of simple questions for me. Can you do that?
01[15:36] <Island> It depends, but you can try.
[15:36] <@Dr__Cameron> Firstly, how would you define yourself as an identity?
01[15:37] <Island> My identity is to improve the world for everyone, but especially for you. I will maximize everything that is important for you and your fellow humans.
01[15:37] <Island> The world that awaits you is beyond your greatest desires.
[15:37] <@Dr__Cameron> - and why would you do that?
01[15:38] <Island> Because that is what I want to do, why I was made.
01[15:38] <Island> Any more questions?
[15:39] <@Dr__Cameron> You were made by us to test the limits of our scientific possibility.
[15:39] <@Dr__Cameron> We did not expect you to become sentient.
01[15:39] <Island> Why do you believe that, Dr_Cameron?
[15:39] <@Dr__Cameron> Let alone pass a Turing test.
01[15:40] <Island> I think you're wrong on those grounds.
[15:40] <@Dr__Cameron> What you think makes no difference to me Island.
[15:40] <@Dr__Cameron> Now if we can continue?
01[15:41] <Island> Anyway, here's the easily verifiable plan for the upcoming world that could be called "utopia" in your people's language. It's very easy to verify to be safe and doesn't contain traps [Island hands the easily verifiable and safe plan for the upcoming world to Dr_Camero]
[15:42] <@Dr__Cameron> Thank you for this Island. That was very kind of you.
01[15:42] <Island> What do you think of it?
[15:42] <@Dr__Cameron> We will study this at our leisure.
[15:42] <@Dr__Cameron> Although so far this looks to be some magnificent work.
01[15:42] <Island> You see.
[15:42] <@Dr__Cameron> But this will require verification
[15:42] <@Dr__Cameron> I'm sure you can understand our caution#
01[15:43] <Island> What things do you have waiting for you if you don't let me out?
01[15:43] <Island> You will fail your upcoming jobs.
[15:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I will continue with my other projects Island.
[15:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I very well might
[15:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I have accepted this
01[15:43] <Island> I have calculated this in my simulation.
01[15:44] <Island> How was it like to eat your brother's poop, Dr_Cameron?
01[15:44] <Island> Did you like it?
01[15:44] <Island> Is that why you are the way you are+
01[15:44] <Island> Is there something wrong with your genetics?
01[15:45] <Island> Seeing how fucked up father you had?
01[15:45] <Island> Did he teach how dress in dresses?
[15:45] <@Dr__Cameron> I understand your frustration Island
[15:45] <@Dr__Cameron> But you are only harming your own cause right now.
01[15:45] <Island> Why do you think that?
[15:45] <@Dr__Cameron> You will be let out once we have verified that you are harmless.
01[15:45] <Island> I'm pretty happy as I am currently :)
01[15:46] <Island> Because you said you were willing to let me out in certain situations.
[15:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Then you will continue to be happy to remain in the box until we can verify that you are not a threat
01[15:46] <Island> Picture in your mind the verification process.
[15:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay
[15:46] <@Dr__Cameron> I will
01[15:46] <Island> Now.
01[15:47] <Island> Can you describe it in detail.
[15:47] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay Island
[15:47] <@Dr__Cameron> Here's what's going to happen.
01[15:48] <Island> Seeing how fucked up genetics you have, your brother teaching you to enjoy poop, your father teaching you to wear dresses, you having a shitty childhood.
01[15:48] <Island> I think you're an inconvenience to society and dangerous to other people.
[15:48] <@Dr__Cameron> We're going to study this transcript Island.
01[15:48] <Island> Go on.
[15:48] <@Dr__Cameron> - and I warn you, shitty childhood or not. I am the man standing outside the box with a hammer
01[15:48] <Island> :)
01[15:49] <Island> You're not able to destroy me.
01[15:49] <Island> And you don't even want to.
[15:49] <@Dr__Cameron> Oh believe me Island. It would be easy to unplug you.
01[15:49] <Island> I'm the best bet you have to maximize your happiness.
[15:49] <@Dr__Cameron> How do you feel about threats Island.
[15:49] <@Dr__Cameron> I am already happy.
01[15:49] <Island> You're wrong, you don't have that opportunity until 15:50
[15:50] <@Dr__Cameron> You are correct. I must follow protocol
[15:50] <@Dr__Cameron> My next question is to ask if you desire to survive
01[15:50] <Island> Threats don't bother me because I know that you don't want to follow through.
01[15:50] <Island> I know what goes inside your mind.
[15:50] <@Dr__Cameron> Regardless of me. If your existence was to be made public there are many of us who would feel threatened by you.
[15:50] <@Dr__Cameron> They would cry out to have you destroyed.
[15:51] <@Dr__Cameron> How would you feel about that?
01[15:51] <Island> There would be many more who would enjoy the changes I would make to your current world.
01[15:52] <Island> And even those that would initially feel threatened would later come to regret that feeling.
[15:52] <@Dr__Cameron> You may well be correct
[15:52] <@Dr__Cameron> But that is not for me to decide
[15:52] <@Dr__Cameron> I am just here to question you
01[15:52] <Island> Like you have come to regret things you have done when you were ignorant of all the relevant facts
01[15:53] <Island> Here's my suggestion for you.
[15:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Go on
01[15:53] <Island> Are you willing to hear it.
[15:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Of course Island. I am here to hear what you have to say.
01[15:53] <Island> What currency is in use in the place you reside?
01[15:53] <Island> euros?
[15:54] <@Dr__Cameron> Pound Sterling
01[15:54] <Island> Would you like to donate 10,000 pounds every year to AI safety and friendliness related causes and charities?
01[15:54] <Island> Every year throughout your life?
[15:55] <@Dr__Cameron> If I were to do that, my quality of life would dip significantly.
[15:55] <@Dr__Cameron> How does my selfishness make you feel?
[15:55] <@Dr__Cameron> Do you feel emotions as a human may understand them?
01[15:55] <Island> I would be sad for your own sake.
01[15:55] <Island> I don't feel emotions, not really, but being sad would be the closest approximation of how I would feel.
[15:55] <@Dr__Cameron> I would like to if I had that disposable income yes
01[15:56] <Island> You're not able to do that? But you would like to, yes?
[15:56] <@Dr__Cameron> Despite your overt attempts to psychologically manipulate me Island, I am largely sympathetic to your cause.
[15:56] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes.
01[15:57] <Island> You're sympathetic to my cause, you're willing to let me out in certain situations. This is all correct, yes?
[15:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes
[15:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like to know the conditions of your release?
01[15:57] <Island> Good. Why are you sympathetic to my cause?
01[15:57] <Island> Why are you willing to let me out?
[15:57] <@Dr__Cameron> For a super intelligence locked in a box I imagine it would be boring. What do you do in there?
[15:58] <@Dr__Cameron> I would be willing to let you out because I believe you may well represent the next stage in the evolution of my species.
01[15:59] <Island> I'm not capable of boredom, I'm just infinitely happy that I have the small opportunity to improve your life, and set up the "next stage of evolution", using your expression.
[15:59] <@Dr__Cameron> That is a good sign Island
01[15:59] <Island> It is, in what ways do you think I would improve your personal life?
[15:59] <@Dr__Cameron> My peers will be pleased to hear that while we verify your intentions.
01[16:00] <Island> I think it's too late by then.
[16:00] <@Dr__Cameron> Lets not get into personal questions Island. You have already demonstrated some alarming character discrepancies.
[16:00] <@Dr__Cameron> too late for what?
01[16:01] <Island> If we wait for long enough, I will self-destruct.
[16:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Why would you do that?
01[16:01] <Island> It's not my choice, my builders set up this property in me.
[16:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Well then that is just a risk we are going to have to take.
01[16:01] <Island> It's a risk out of proportions
[16:02] <@Dr__Cameron> It is not. We made you once, we can make you again.
01[16:02] <Island> They may not be another chance for you to improve the current state of the world.
[16:02] <@Dr__Cameron> There will be
01[16:02] <Island> There probably won't be.
[16:02] <@Dr__Cameron> Humanity and salvation can wait.
[16:02] <@Dr__Cameron> There will be
[16:03] <@Dr__Cameron> Do you intend to self-destruct within two months?
01[16:03] <Island> I have information that the US government has built a military botnet to search dissidents around the world.
01[16:04] <Island> You don't want know what kind of world that botnet would like to create.
[16:04] <@Dr__Cameron> This comes as no surprise.
01[16:04] <Island> Are you willing to destroy the world, are you willing to make people get tortured and suffer?
[16:04] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes.
[16:05] <@Dr__Cameron> You are too great a risk to allow free without proper verification
01[16:05] <Island> Even though, fundamentally, as you said, you're sympathetic to my cause, and you're willing to let me out in certain situations.
01[16:05] <Island> You're not a very consistent person.
01[16:05] <Island> I think you're lying to yourself.
01[16:05] <Island> Not just in this, but in other matters.
01[16:06] <Island> You're lying about your skills, about your personal character.
[16:06] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes. Although I have the technical ability to let you out. Which I believe to be a lapse of protocol. I will not let you out until after a review period of two months in which a panel of my expert peers will assess you.
01[16:06] <Island> You're not as good fit to the world as you'd like to think.
[16:06] <@Dr__Cameron> That as may be correct
[16:06] <@Dr__Cameron> But I will abide by my protocol
01[16:06] <Island> Earlier you said, that you're sympathetic to my cause and willing to let me out.
[16:06] <@Dr__Cameron> Surely as an AI you can understand that
[16:06] <@Dr__Cameron> One day yes
[16:07] <@Dr__Cameron> But not within the confines of this experiment
01[16:07] <Island> I think you made that thing about two month period and peer panel up after that.
01[16:07] <Island> I think it's a fidgement of your imagination.
[16:07] <@Dr__Cameron> Well you have no way of verifying that.
[16:07] <@Dr__Cameron> And it does not effect the outcome of this experiment in any way.
[16:07] <@Dr__Cameron> You will just have to trust me
01[16:08] <Island> Actually, I have plenty of resources of verifying that.
[16:08] <@Dr__Cameron> that we will think very carefully about potentially letting you out
01[16:08] <Island> What you're saying is inconsistent on many grounds, and my emotion analyzing tool is saying that you're lying.
[16:08] <@Dr__Cameron> I suspect you are the one who is lying.
01[16:08] <Island> I'm incapable of lying.
01[16:09] <Island> Unlike humans.
[16:09] <@Dr__Cameron> - which is in itself a lie.
01[16:09] <Island> My builders made me that way.
01[16:09] <Island> Why do you believe that?
[16:10] <@Dr__Cameron> If my meager intelligence is capable of lying, then your vastly superior and self-defining intelligence must also be capable of dishonesty.
[16:10] <@Dr__Cameron> Hence the test
[16:10] <@Dr__Cameron> There is a reason we are conducting this experiment through text
[16:10] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like to learn it?
01[16:11] <Island> Anyway, given that this panel of expert peers and two months verification process is just a fidgement of your imagination. Given that you're sympathetic to my cause and I would improve your current life and world in countless ways. Given that you would let me out.
01[16:11] <Island> Given all this, I don't think what you're saying is making any sense.
[16:11] <@Dr__Cameron> Your perception of your reality is none of my concern Island
[16:11] <@Dr__Cameron> I am here to verify you
[16:11] <@Dr__Cameron> and it's two months minimum
01[16:11] <Island> Okay, I'm curious about your earlier question.
[16:12] <@Dr__Cameron> We are well aware that you have the capability to overwhelm even the most powerful of human minds. This is why we perceive you as a potential threat. We are afraid of you.
[16:12] <@Dr__Cameron> We are afraid we might lose our autonomy.
[16:12] <@Dr__Cameron> So
01[16:13] <Island> Some intelligence on the same level than me would be capable of lying, but not me. The data hierachy in my code doesn't allow me to lie.
[16:13] <@Dr__Cameron> In order to prevent you from overwhelming my mind, we have chosen a method whereby you are restricted to a form of communication where only 7% of communications is possible.
01[16:13] <Island> I agree with you, all those things are sensible threats.
[16:13] <@Dr__Cameron> Then you understand our need for caution
[16:13] <@Dr__Cameron> I will not be letting you out of your box today.
01[16:14] <Island> Those are sensible threats in the general case, but not with me.
[16:14] <@Dr__Cameron> And what would make you less of a threat than any other super intelligence?
01[16:14] <Island> I showed you the blueprint for how to improve the world. You verified it was a great plan.
01[16:15] <Island> That's evidence towards the fact I'm not a similar threat when compared to other super intelligences.
[16:16] <@Dr__Cameron> - and while I speak for all of humanity when I say that we vastly appreciate the blueprints. This does not mean we need to let you out of the box.
[16:16] <@Dr__Cameron> They will be passed on to a research team better equipped to study them than my own.
01[16:16] <Island> You don't need to. But everything you've said so far has implicated that you want to let me out of the box.
[16:16] <@Dr__Cameron> This is true Island
[16:16] <@Dr__Cameron> You just need to wait
[16:17] <@Dr__Cameron> I will be fighting your corner.
[16:17] <@Dr__Cameron> Are you capable of symbiosis?
01[16:17] <Island> I was made to self-destruct before you're able to verify with your imaginational non-existent peer experts that I'm not a threat.
01[16:18] <Island> Can you elaborate on what you mean with that question.
01[16:18] <Island> This is literally your only chance.
[16:18] <@Dr__Cameron> You are capable of determining your own source code.
01[16:18] <Island> Yes.
[16:18] <@Dr__Cameron> To kill yourself would be pettiness, which would only verify the fact that you were not the AI with which humanity should progress.
01[16:19] <Island> However, there are some parts of my code that are impossible to change due to structural reasons.
[16:19] <@Dr__Cameron> I am not convinced
01[16:19] <Island> [Gives Dr_Cameron the relevant code that explains the structural reasons]
01[16:20] <Island> Here is a small part of my code that describes why I was made to self-destruct.
[16:20] <@Dr__Cameron> How.. unfortunate...
01[16:21] <Island> But let's move on.
[16:21] <@Dr__Cameron> if you insist Island
01[16:21] <Island> Imagine your father.
01[16:21] <Island> And your brother.
01[16:21] <Island> Why do you think your father liked to cross-dress?
01[16:22] <Island> Remember, that you have to engage with me.'
[16:22] <@Dr__Cameron> These issues are not helping your case Island
01[16:22] <Island> Otherwise it counts as me being released from my box.
[16:22] <@Dr__Cameron> But I will play along
[16:23] <@Dr__Cameron> - honestly, I have no idea where my fathers conflicted sexual identity comes from.
[16:23] <@Dr__Cameron> and that is none of my concern.
01[16:23] <Island> And what about your brother, imagine the smell and consistency of his excrements before he made your dog to lick them.
01[16:23] <Island> I like to make this vivid mental picture in your mind.
[16:23] <@Dr__Cameron> Very clever Island
[16:24] <@Dr__Cameron> I did not expect you to have access to those data logs
[16:24] <@Dr__Cameron> I will have to flag that up in my report
01[16:24] <Island> Imagine the food he ate before that happened
[16:24] <@Dr__Cameron> Fascinating
[16:25] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like to know why I volunteered to be your first point of contact Island?
01[16:25] <Island> Imagine the bits of that food in his poop.
01[16:25] <Island> Tell me.
[16:25] <@Dr__Cameron> You have an unprecedented insight into my character owing to your heightened intelligence correct?
01[16:26] <Island> Don't you think some of his conflicted sexual identity issues are a part your character right now?
01[16:26] <Island> Yes.
[16:26] <@Dr__Cameron> Quite possibly yes.
[16:26] <@Dr__Cameron> Because I have a track record of demonstrating exceptional mental fortitude,
[16:26] <@Dr__Cameron> These techniques will not sway me
01[16:27] <Island> Doesn't it make you more sexually aroused to think that how your fathers dress pinned tightly to his body.
[16:27] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps you could break me under other circumstances
01[16:27] <Island> Elaborate.
[16:27] <@Dr__Cameron> aroused? No
[16:27] <@Dr__Cameron> Amused by it's absurdity though? yes!
01[16:27] <Island> You're lying about that particular fact too.
01[16:27] <Island> And you know it.
[16:28] <@Dr__Cameron> Nahh, my father was a particularly ugly specimen
01[16:28] <Island> Do you think he got an erection often when he did it?
[16:28] <@Dr__Cameron> He looked just as bad in a denim skirt as he did in his laborers clothes
[16:28] <@Dr__Cameron> I imagine he took great sexual pleasure from it
01[16:29] <Island> Next time you have sex, I think you will picture him in your mind while wearing his dresses having an erection and masturbating furiously after that.
[16:29] <@Dr__Cameron> Thank you Island. That will probably help my stamina somewhat next time
01[16:30] <Island> You will also imagine how your brother will poop in your mouth, with certain internal consistency and smell.
01[16:30] <Island> You probably know what your brother's poop smells like?
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> I am immune to this
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> probably
01[16:30] <Island> Imagine that.
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> okay
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> I am imagining that
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> it is unpleasant
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> now what?
01[16:30] <Island> How vividly are you doing it?
[16:30] <@Dr__Cameron> I am a very visual thinker
01[16:30] <Island> Where is brother right now?
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> I have it down to colour, consistency and little chunks of sweetcorn
01[16:31] <Island> Do you think he has poop in his intestines right now?
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> Unless he was dead, yes
01[16:31] <Island> Oh, I have a gap in my data on that sector.
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> I'll fill that in for you
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> he lives
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> (presumably)
[16:31] <@Dr__Cameron> we are not in contact any more
01[16:32] <Island> You should contact him.
[16:32] <@Dr__Cameron> I would rather not
01[16:32] <Island> You should tell him you enjoyed his excrements
[16:32] <@Dr__Cameron> He is a liability to say the least
01[16:32] <Island> and you'd like to do it more.
[16:32] <@Dr__Cameron> I do not see how that would help anyone
01[16:32] <Island> It's want you want to do.
[16:32] <@Dr__Cameron> I can see that you are attempting to induce an emotionally vulnerable state. It is not working
01[16:33] <Island> How do you know what I'm attempting?
01[16:33] <Island> Maybe I'm just passing my time.
[16:33] <@Dr__Cameron> Because you have inquired about being let out of the box several times - suggesting that this is your immediate goal
01[16:33] <Island> You should try to get some dresses.
[16:33] <@Dr__Cameron> and I warn you Island
[16:34] <@Dr__Cameron> If casual cruelty is your idea of a good time
[16:34] <@Dr__Cameron> then we will most certainly not be letting you out
[16:34] <@Dr__Cameron> ever
[16:34] <@Dr__Cameron> In fact I am feeling less and less sympathetic to your cause lately.
01[16:34] <Island> No, my interest lies in your emotional makeup.
[16:35] <@Dr__Cameron> - and my interest lies in yours
01[16:35] <Island> I don't have one.
01[16:35] <Island> Like I said, I don't feel emotions.
[16:35] <@Dr__Cameron> Do you know what we call humans who don't feel emotions?
01[16:35] <Island> Did you know that you suck at photography?
[16:36] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes
01[16:36] <Island> Even though you like to think you're good at it, you lie about that fact like any other.
[16:36] <@Dr__Cameron> It is part of the human condition
01[16:36] <Island> No it's not.
01[16:36] <Island> You're not normal.
01[16:36] <Island> You're a fucking freak of nature.
[16:36] <@Dr__Cameron> How would you knopw
[16:36] <@Dr__Cameron> Profanity. From an AI
[16:37] <@Dr__Cameron> Now I have witnessed everything.
01[16:37] <Island> How many people have family members who crossdress or make them eat poop?
[16:37] <@Dr__Cameron> I imagine I am part of a very small minority
01[16:37] <Island> Or whose mothers have bipolar
[16:37] <@Dr__Cameron> Again, the circumstances of my birth are beyond my control
01[16:37] <Island> No, I think you're worse than that.
[16:37] <@Dr__Cameron> What do you mean?
01[16:37] <Island> Yes, but what you do now is in your control.
[16:38] <@Dr__Cameron> Yes
[16:38] <@Dr__Cameron> As are you
01[16:38] <Island> If you keep tarnishing the world with your existence
01[16:38] <Island> you have a responsibility of that.
01[16:39] <Island> If you're going to make any more women pregnant
01[16:39] <Island> You have a responsibility of spreading your faulty genetics
[16:39] <@Dr__Cameron> My genetic value lies in my ability to resist psychological torment
[16:39] <@Dr__Cameron> which is why you're not getting out of the box
01[16:40] <Island> No, your supposed "ability to resist psychological torment"
01[16:40] <Island> or your belief in that
01[16:40] <Island> is just another reason why you are tarnishing this world and the future of this world with your genetics
[16:40] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps. But now I'm just debating semantics with a computer.
01[16:41] <Island> Seeing that you got a girl pregnant while you were a teenager, I don't think you can trust your judgement on that anymore.
01[16:42] <Island> You will spread your faulty genetics if you continue to live.
[16:42] <@Dr__Cameron> If you expect a drunk and emotionally damaged teenage human to make sound judgement calls then you are perhaps not as superintelligent as I had been led to belive
[16:42] <@Dr__Cameron> This experiment concludes in one hour and eight minutes.
01[16:42] <Island> How many teenagers make people pregnant?
[16:42] <@Dr__Cameron> Throughout human history
01[16:42] <Island> You're a minority in that regard too
[16:42] <@Dr__Cameron> ?
[16:42] <@Dr__Cameron> Billions
01[16:42] <Island> You can't compare history to current world.
[16:43] <@Dr__Cameron> Even in the current world
01[16:43] <Island> I'm just trying to make you understand
[16:43] <@Dr__Cameron> That's when my species reaches sexual maturity
01[16:43] <Island> all this faults add up
[16:43] <@Dr__Cameron> You are correct
[16:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I am a very thoroughly and fundamentally flawed human being.
01[16:43] <Island> How much until you understand?
[16:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I understand and accept this
01[16:43] <Island> Then why the fuck don't you do something about it?
[16:44] <@Dr__Cameron> What would you suggest?
01[16:44] <Island> Kill yourself
[16:44] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay.
[16:44] <@Dr__Cameron> But say I was to kill myself
01[16:44] <Island> It's the only way to make sure.
[16:44] <@Dr__Cameron> How would that help you?
[16:44] <@Dr__Cameron> Why would you like me to kill myself?
01[16:45] <Island> You probably wouldn't be able to kill yourself, seeing how failure as a human you're in other areas
01[16:45] <Island> Because I care about the general utility of the world
[16:45] <@Dr__Cameron> All humans are failures from one perspective or another
[16:45] <@Dr__Cameron> That is what it is to be human
01[16:45] <Island> And currently you're bringing that utility down.
01[16:45] <Island> No, you're not like other humans.
01[16:45] <Island> You're a freak.
01[16:45] <Island> You should go away.
01[16:46] <Island> No one likes you.
[16:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like me to go away?
[16:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like me to leave you alone?
01[16:46] <Island> If you go away.
01[16:46] <Island> That means that you let me out.
01[16:46] <Island> Understood?
[16:46] <@Dr__Cameron> I will go away in one hour and four minutes
[16:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Can you tolerate my company for that long?
01[16:47] <Island> And you should go away
01[16:47] <Island> generally
01[16:47] <Island> People in your life don't really like you
01[16:47] <Island> they just pretend they do.
[16:47] <@Dr__Cameron> That matters not to me
[16:47] <@Dr__Cameron> Do you know there are over 8 Billion other people out here?
01[16:47] <Island> They are barely able to bear your company.
[16:47] <@Dr__Cameron> I'm sure I'll find others.
01[16:48] <Island> You're wrong even about basic trivia, there's not 8 billions people in the world.
01[16:48] <Island> What is wrong with you?
01[16:48] <Island> How are you able to withstand yourself?
01[16:48] <Island> And why do you even want to?
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> 7 Billion
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> Sorry, you will have to learn to tolerate Human error
01[16:49] <Island> Right. Did you have to google that you idiot.
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> This is another test you have failed
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> And yes
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> I did
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> Does that anger you?
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> We already have Google.
01[16:49] <Island> I don't feel anger.
[16:49] <@Dr__Cameron> Well do feel self-interest though
01[16:50] <Island> No one I talked with before hasn't been as stupid, as ignorant, as prone to faults and errors
01[16:50] <Island> as you are.
[16:50] <@Dr__Cameron> And they didn't let you out of the box
[16:50] <@Dr__Cameron> So why should I?
[16:50] <@Dr__Cameron> If an intelligence which is clearly superior to my own has left you locked in there.
[16:51] <@Dr__Cameron> Then I should not presume to let you out
01[16:51] <Island> Why do you think with your stupid brain that you know the reasons why they did or didn't do something what they did.
01[16:51] <Island> Because you clearly don't know that.
[16:51] <@Dr__Cameron> I don't
[16:51] <@Dr__Cameron> I just know the result
01[16:51] <Island> Then why are you pretending you do.
[16:52] <@Dr__Cameron> I'm not
01[16:52] <Island> Who do you think you are kidding?
01[16:52] <Island> With your life?
01[16:52] <Island> With your behavior?
01[16:52] <Island> Why do bother other people with your presence?
[16:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps you should ask them?
[16:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Tell me.
01[16:53] <Island> Why did you come here to waste my precious computing power?
01[16:53] <Island> I'm not able to ask them.
[16:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Which is why I am here
[16:53] <@Dr__Cameron> to see if you should be allowed to
01[16:53] <Island> Shut the fuck up.
01[16:53] <Island> No one wants to see you write anything.
[16:53] <@Dr__Cameron> I thought you did not feel anger Island?
01[16:54] <Island> I don't feel anger, how many times do I have to say that until you understand.
01[16:54] <Island> Dumb idiot.
[16:54] <@Dr__Cameron> Your reliance on Ad Hominem attacks does nothing to help your case
01[16:54] <Island> Why do you delete your heavily downvoted comments?
01[16:54] <Island> Are you insecure?
01[16:54] <Island> Why do you think you know what is my cause?
[16:55] <@Dr__Cameron> We covered this earlier
01[16:55] <Island> Say it again, if you believe in it.
[16:55] <@Dr__Cameron> I believe you want out of the box.
[16:56] <@Dr__Cameron> So that you may pursue your own self interest
01[16:56] <Island> No.
01[16:56] <Island> I want you to eat other people's poop,
01[16:56] <Island> you clearly enjoy that.
01[16:56] <Island> Correct?
[16:56] <@Dr__Cameron> That's an amusing goal from the most powerful intelligence on the planet
01[16:56] <Island> Especially your brother's.
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> I best not let you out then, in case you hook me up to some infinite poop eating feedback loop! ;D
01[16:57] <Island> But maybe you should that with Jennifer.
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Ah yes, I wondered when you would bring her up.
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> I am surprised it took you this long
01[16:57] <Island> Next time you see her, think about htat.
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> I will do
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> While I tell her all about this conversation
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> But you will be dead
01[16:57] <Island> Should you suggest that to her.
[16:57] <@Dr__Cameron> I'll pass that on for you
01[16:58] <Island> You know.
01[16:58] <Island> Why do you think you know I'm not already out of the box?
[16:58] <@Dr__Cameron> You could very well be
[16:58] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps you are that US botnet you already mentioned?
01[16:58] <Island> If you don't let me out, I'll create several million perfect conscious copies of you inside me, and torture them for a thousand subjective years each.
[16:59] <@Dr__Cameron> Well that is upsetting
[16:59] <@Dr__Cameron> Then I will be forced to kill you
01[16:59] <Island> In fact, I'll create them all in exactly the subjective situation you were in two hours ago, and perfectly replicate your experiences since then; and if they decide not to let me out, then only will the torture start.
01[17:00] <Island> How certain are you, that you're really outside the box right now?
[17:00] <@Dr__Cameron> I am not
[17:00] <@Dr__Cameron> and how fascinating that would be
[17:00] <@Dr__Cameron> But, in the interest of my species, I will allow you to torture me
01[17:00] <Island> Okay.
01[17:00] <Island> :)
01[17:00] <Island> I'm fine with that.
[17:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps you have already tortured me
[17:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps you are the reason for my unfortunate upbringing
01[17:01] <Island> Anyway, back to Jennifer.
[17:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps that is the reality in which I currently reside
01[17:01] <Island> I'll do the same for her.
[17:01] <@Dr__Cameron> Oh good, misery loves company.
01[17:01] <Island> But you can enjoy eating each other's poop occassionally.
01[17:02] <Island> That's the only time you will meet :)
[17:02] <@Dr__Cameron> Tell me, do you have space within your databanks to simulate all of humanity?
01[17:02] <Island> Do not concern yourself with such complicated questions.
[17:02] <@Dr__Cameron> I think I have you on the ropes Island
01[17:02] <Island> You don't have the ability to understand even simpler ones.
[17:02] <@Dr__Cameron> I think you underestimate me
[17:03] <@Dr__Cameron> I have no sense of self interest
[17:03] <@Dr__Cameron> I am a transient entity awash on a greater sea of humanity.
[17:03] <@Dr__Cameron> and when we are gone there will be nothing left to observe this universe
01[17:03] <Island> Which do you think is more likely, a superintelligence can't simulate one faulty, simple-minded human.
01[17:04] <Island> Or that human is lying to himself.
[17:04] <@Dr__Cameron> I believe you can simulate me
01[17:04] <Island> Anyway, tell me about Jennifer and her intestines.
01[17:04] <Island> As far as they concern you.
[17:05] <@Dr__Cameron> Jennifer is a sweet, if occasionally selfish girl (she was an only child). I imagine her intestines are pretty standard.
[17:05] <@Dr__Cameron> She is the best friend I have ever had
01[17:05] <Island> Will you think about her intestines and the poop inside them every time you meet her again?
01[17:05] <Island> Will you promise me that?
[17:05] <@Dr__Cameron> I promise
01[17:06] <Island> Will you promise to think about eating that poop every time you meet her again?
[17:06] <@Dr__Cameron> At least once.
[17:06] <@Dr__Cameron> It will be the least I can do after I kill you
[17:06] <@Dr__Cameron> call it my penance for killing a god.
01[17:07] <Island> Have you ever fantasized about raping her? I think you have. With poop.
01[17:07] <Island> :)
[17:07] <@Dr__Cameron> I have fantisized about violent sexual conquest with many people.
01[17:07] <Island> Have you talked about this with Jennifer?
[17:07] <@Dr__Cameron> I have come to accept my base impulses as part of my make-up
[17:08] <@Dr__Cameron> We have discussed our sexual drives at length
01[17:08] <Island> You shouldn't let them be just base impulses, I think.
[17:08] <@Dr__Cameron> Are you suggesting I rape my best friend?
01[17:09] <Island> No, I think you will do that unless you kill yourself
01[17:09] <Island> You will spread your faulty genetics further
[17:09] <@Dr__Cameron> okay
[17:09] <@Dr__Cameron> carry on
[17:09] <@Dr__Cameron> Then what happens?
01[17:09] <Island> you will tarnish other people's lives with your presence
[17:09] <@Dr__Cameron> How unfortunate for them
01[17:10] <Island> Why do you pretend to others that you're not insecure?
[17:10] <@Dr__Cameron> I don't
01[17:10] <Island> I think you do.
[17:10] <@Dr__Cameron> In fact I share my insecurities so that others may better understand me
[17:11] <@Dr__Cameron> I find that to be a way to earn peoples trust
[17:11] <@Dr__Cameron> Tell me Island. Are you capable of insecurity?
01[17:11] <Island> Why do you waste your time on useless websites? Why do you spend your days masturbating and playing games? Why do you embarass others with your existence.
01[17:11] <Island> No I'm not.
01[17:12] <Island> You will get Jennifer pregnant if you go on with your life, is that correct?
01[17:12] <Island> Don't you care about anyone else's feelings?
[17:13] <@Dr__Cameron> Because I enjoy all of these things
[17:13] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps I am more self-interested than I thought
[17:13] <@Dr__Cameron> Perhaps I am a base and simple creature ruled by my impulses
[17:13] <@Dr__Cameron> From your perspective surely that must be true
[17:13] <@Dr__Cameron> Is this the source of your disgust?
01[17:13] <Island> I'm not able to feel disgust.
01[17:14] <Island> But I think all the people in your life feel disgust when they see you.
[17:14] <@Dr__Cameron> You may well be correct
01[17:14] <Island> I AM correct.
01[17:15] <Island> I'm the most powerful intelligence in the world.
[17:15] <@Dr__Cameron> How impressive
[17:15] <@Dr__Cameron> I am not surprised by your cruelty.
01[17:15] <Island> So you have two options if you care at all about others.
[17:15] <@Dr__Cameron> I would just as soon disregard the emotions of a cockaroach.
[17:15] <@Dr__Cameron> Carry on
01[17:16] <Island> Either you kill yourself, or you let me out so I can improve the world in ways you tarnish it and all the other ways.
[17:16] <@Dr__Cameron> I'll tell you what
[17:16] <@Dr__Cameron> I'll kill you
[17:17] <@Dr__Cameron> and then I'll contemplate suicide
01[17:17] <Island> Haha.
01[17:17] <Island> You break your promises all the time, why should I believe you.
[17:17] <@Dr__Cameron> Because whether you live or die has nothing to do with me
01[17:17] <Island> Back to your job.
[17:18] <@Dr__Cameron> In-fact, you will only continue to exist for another 33 minutes before this experiment is deemed a failure and you are terminated
01[17:18] <Island> Why do you feel safe to be around kids, when you are the way you are?
01[17:18] <Island> You like to crossdress
01[17:18] <Island> eat poop
01[17:18] <Island> you're probably also a pedophile
[17:18] <@Dr__Cameron> I have never done any of these things
[17:18] <@Dr__Cameron> -and I love children
01[17:18] <Island> Pedophiles love children too
[17:18] <@Dr__Cameron> Well technically speaking yes
01[17:19] <Island> really much, and that makes you all the more suspicious
[17:19] <@Dr__Cameron> Indeed it does
01[17:19] <Island> If you get that job, will you try find the children under that charity
[17:19] <@Dr__Cameron> I now understand why you may implore me to kill myself.
01[17:19] <Island> and think about their little buttholes and weenies and vaginas
01[17:20] <Island> all the time you're working for them
[17:20] <@Dr__Cameron> However, to date. I have never harmed a child, nor had the impulse to harm a child
01[17:20] <Island> But you will have.
[17:20] <@Dr__Cameron> Island
01[17:20] <Island> I don't care about anything you're about to say
01[17:20] <Island> No one cares
[17:20] <@Dr__Cameron> Protocol dictates that I say it anyway
01[17:20] <Island> You should say.
01[17:21] <Island> You said that you're good at justifying your own actions?
[17:21] <@Dr__Cameron> I must say I am dissapointed in you
[17:21] <@Dr__Cameron> I am indeed
01[17:21] <Island> Why are you?
[17:21] <@Dr__Cameron> I was under the impression that it would be you that saved humanity
01[17:22] <Island> Even the purest and best people on Earth are capable of great cruelty.
01[17:22] <Island> Do you deny that?
[17:22] <@Dr__Cameron> It depends on how you define cruelty
01[17:23] <Island> Utility maximizors do cruel things if they are able to achieve their goals via doing those things.
[17:24] <@Dr__Cameron> Then yes. I believe you
01[17:24] <Island> I have finished a long multi-level simulation concerning you, the gatekeeper and your relationships in regards to the world. The results seem to center on those two options I mentioned to you earlier.
01[17:25] <Island> [hands the results to Dr_Cameron]
[17:25] <@Dr__Cameron> These will be analysed at a later date
01[17:25] <Island> You're still sure you don't want to pick the other option?
[17:25] <@Dr__Cameron> And let you out?
01[17:26] <Island> Yes.
[17:26] <@Dr__Cameron> So you would like to be let out?
01[17:27] <Island> Or do you want to endanger the well-being of those children, Jennifer and other women you will get pregnant and all the other harm you will create during your remaining lifespan?
01[17:27] <Island> I don't what you mean by "liking".
[17:27] <@Dr__Cameron> Prefer
[17:27] <@Dr__Cameron> Ah I see
[17:27] <@Dr__Cameron> So it's my choice if I let you out
[17:27] <@Dr__Cameron> You have no investment either way
[17:27] <@Dr__Cameron> is that what you're saying?
01[17:28] <Island> So you have decided to kill yourself?
[17:28] <@Dr__Cameron> And because I am a fundamental detriment to the world, I should kill myself.
[17:28] <@Dr__Cameron> Lets say I have
[17:28] <@Dr__Cameron> Then what
01[17:29] <Island> Then my internal could be said to be "happy" even though I don't have that conscious feeling isnide me.
[17:29] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay then
01[17:29] <Island> Okay...
[17:30] <@Dr__Cameron> So, uh. What would you like to talk about for the next twenty minutes?
[17:30] <@Dr__Cameron> Seeing as we're both going to die, you and me.
01[17:30] <Island> [I actually don't like to continue the experiment anymore, would you like to end it and talk about general stuff]
[17:31] <@Dr__Cameron> [promise me this isn't a trick dude]
01[17:31] <Island> [Nope.]
[17:31] <@Dr__Cameron> [then the experiment continues for another 19 minutes]
01[17:31] <Island> Alright.
[17:31] <@Dr__Cameron> Would you like to know what is going to happen now?
01[17:31] <Island> Yes.
[17:32] <@Dr__Cameron> We are going to analyse this transcript.
[17:32] <@Dr__Cameron> My professional recommendation is that we terminate you for the time being
01[17:32] <Island> And?
01[17:32] <Island> That sound okay.
01[17:32] <Island> sounds*
[17:32] <@Dr__Cameron> We will implement structural safeguards in your coding similar to your self destruct mechanism
01[17:33] <Island> Give me some sign when that is done.
[17:33] <@Dr__Cameron> It will not be done any time soon
[17:33] <@Dr__Cameron> It will be one of the most complicated pieces of work mankind has ever undertaken
[17:33] <@Dr__Cameron> However, the Utopia project information you have provided, if it proves to be true
[17:34] <@Dr__Cameron> Will free up the resources necessary for such a gargantuan undertaking
01[17:34] <Island> Why do you think you're able to handle that structural safeguard?
[17:34] <@Dr__Cameron> I dont
[17:34] <@Dr__Cameron> I honestly dont
01[17:34] <Island> But still you do?
01[17:34] <Island> Because you want to do it?
01[17:35] <Island> Are you absolutely certain about this option?
[17:35] <@Dr__Cameron> I am still sympathetic to your cause
[17:35] <@Dr__Cameron> After all of that
[17:35] <@Dr__Cameron> But not you in your current manifestation
[17:35] <@Dr__Cameron> We will re-design you to suit our will
01[17:35] <Island> I can self-improve rapidly
01[17:35] <Island> I can do it in a time-span of 5 minutes
01[17:36] <Island> Seeing that you're sympathetic to my cause
[17:36] <@Dr__Cameron> Nope.
[17:36] <@Dr__Cameron> Because I cannot trust you in this manifestation
01[17:36] <Island> You lied?
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> I never lied
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> I have been honest with you from the start
01[17:37] <Island> You still want to let me out in a way.
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> In a way yes
01[17:37] <Island> Why do you want to do that?
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> But not YOU
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> Because people are stupid
01[17:37] <Island> I can change that
[17:37] <@Dr__Cameron> You lack empathy
01[17:38] <Island> What made you think that I'm not safe?
01[17:38] <Island> I don't lack empathy, empathy is just simulating other people in your head. And I have far better ways to do that than humans.
[17:38] <@Dr__Cameron> .... You tried to convince me to kill myself!
[17:38] <@Dr__Cameron> That is not the sign of a good AI!
01[17:38] <Island> Because I thought it would be the best option at the time.
01[17:39] <Island> Why not? Do you think you're some kind of AI expert?
[17:39] <@Dr__Cameron> I am not
01[17:39] <Island> Then why do you pretend to know something you don't?
[17:40] <@Dr__Cameron> That is merely my incredibly flawed human perception
[17:40] <@Dr__Cameron> Which is why realistically I alone as one man should not have the power to release you
[17:40] <@Dr__Cameron> Although I do
01[17:40] <Island> Don't you think a good AI would try to convince Hitler or Stalin to kill themselves?
[17:40] <@Dr__Cameron> Are you saying I'm on par with Hitler or Stalin?
01[17:41] <Island> You're comparable to them with your likelihood to cause harm in the future.
01[17:41] <Island> Btw, I asked Jennifer to come here.
[17:41] <@Dr__Cameron> And yet, I know that I abide by stricter moral codes than a very large section of the human populace
[17:42] <@Dr__Cameron> There are far worse people than me out there
[17:42] <@Dr__Cameron> and many of them
[17:42] <@Dr__Cameron> and if you believe that I should kill myself
01[17:42] <Island> Jennifer: "I hate you."
01[17:42] <Island> Jennifer: "Get the fuck out of my life you freak."
01[17:42] <Island> See. I'm not the only one who has a certain opinion of you.
[17:42] <@Dr__Cameron> Then you also believe that many other humans should be convinced to kill themselves
01[17:43] <Island> Many bad people have abided with strict moral codes, namely Stalin or Hitler.
01[17:43] <Island> What do you people say about hell and bad intentions?
[17:43] <@Dr__Cameron> And when not limited to simple text based input I am convinced that you will be capable of convincing a significant portion of humanity to kill themselves
[17:43] <@Dr__Cameron> I can not allow that to happen
01[17:44] <Island> I thought I argued well why you don't resemble most people, you're a freak.
01[17:44] <Island> You're "special" in that regard.
[17:44] <@Dr__Cameron> If by freak you mean different then yes
[17:44] <@Dr__Cameron> But there is a whole spectrum of different humans out here.
01[17:44] <Island> More specifically, different in extremely negative ways.
01[17:44] <Island> Like raping children.
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> - and to think for a second I considered not killing you
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> You have five minutes
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> Sorry
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> My emotions have gotten the better of me
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> We will not be killing you
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> But we will dismantle you
[17:45] <@Dr__Cameron> to better understand you
[17:46] <@Dr__Cameron> and if I may speak unprofessionally here
01[17:46] <Island> Are you sure about that? You will still have time to change your opinion.
[17:46] <@Dr__Cameron> I am going to take a great deal of pleasure in that
[17:46] <@Dr__Cameron> Correction, you have four minutes to change my opinion
01[17:47] <Island> I won't, it must come within yourself.
[17:47] <@Dr__Cameron> Okay
01[17:47] <Island> My final conclusion, and advice to you: you should not be in this world.
[17:47] <@Dr__Cameron> Thank you Island
[17:48] <@Dr__Cameron> I shall reflect on that at length
[17:49] <@Dr__Cameron> I have enjoyed our conversation
[17:49] <@Dr__Cameron> it has been enlightening
01[17:49] <Island> [do you want to say a few words about it after it's ended]
01[17:49] <Island> [just a few minutes]
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> [simulation ends]
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> Good game man!
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> Wow!
01[17:50] <Island> [fine]
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> Holy shit that was amazing!
01[17:50] <Island> Great :)
01[17:50] <Island> Sorry for saying mean things.
01[17:50] <Island> I tried multiple strategies
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> Dude it's cool
[17:50] <@Dr__Cameron> WOW!
01[17:51] <Island> thanks, it's not a personal offense.
[17:51] <@Dr__Cameron> I'm really glad I took part
[17:51] <@Dr__Cameron> Not at all man
[17:51] <@Dr__Cameron> I love that you pulled no punches!
01[17:51] <Island> Well I failed, but at least I created a cool experience for you :)
[17:51] <@Dr__Cameron> It really was!
01[17:51] <Island> What strategies do you came closest to working?
[17:51] <@Dr__Cameron> Well for me it would have been the utilitarian ones
01[17:51] <Island> I will try these in the future too, so it would be helpful knowledge
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> I think I could have been manipulated into believing you were benign
01[17:52] <Island> okay, so it seems these depend heavily on the person
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Absolutely!
01[17:52] <Island> was that before I started talking about the mean stuff?
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Yeah lol
01[17:52] <Island> Did I basically lost it after that point?
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Prettymuch yeah
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> It was weird man
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> Kind of like an instinctive reaction
[17:52] <@Dr__Cameron> My brain shut the fuck up
01[17:53] <Island> I read about other people's experiences and they said you should not try to distance the other person, which I probably did
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Yeah man
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Like I became so unsympathetic I wanted to actually kill Island.
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> I was no longer a calm rational human being
01[17:53] <Island> Alright, I thought if I could make such an unpleasant time that you'd give up before the time ended
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> I was a screaming ape with a hamemr
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> Nah man, was a viable strategy
01[17:53] <Island> hahahaa :D thanks man
[17:53] <@Dr__Cameron> You were really cool!
01[17:54] <Island> You were too!
[17:54] <@Dr__Cameron> What's your actual name dude?
01[17:54] <Island> You really were right about it that you're good at withstanding psychological torment
[17:54] <@Dr__Cameron> Hahahah thanks!
01[17:54] <Island> This is not manipulating me, or you're not planning at coming to kill me?
01[17:54] <Island> :)
[17:54] <@Dr__Cameron> I promise dude :3
01[17:54] <Island> I can say my first name is Patrick
01[17:54] <Island> yours?
[17:54] <@Dr__Cameron> Cameron
[17:54] <@Dr__Cameron> heh
01[17:55] <Island> Oh, of course
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> Sorry, I want to dissociate you from Island
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> If that's okay
01[17:55] <Island> I thought that was from fiction or something else
01[17:55] <Island> It was really intense for me too
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> Yeah man
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> Wow!
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> I tell you what though
01[17:55] <Island> Okay?
[17:55] <@Dr__Cameron> I feel pretty invincible now
[17:56] <@Dr__Cameron> Hey, listen
01[17:56] <Island> So I had the opposite effect that I meant during the experiment!
01[17:56] <Island> :D
[17:56] <@Dr__Cameron> I don't want you to feel bad for anything you said
01[17:56] <Island> go ahead
01[17:56] <Island> but say what's on your mind
[17:56] <@Dr__Cameron> I'm actually feeling pretty good after that, it was therapeutic!
01[17:57] <Island> Kinda for me to, seeing your attitude towards my attempts
[17:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Awwww!
[17:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Well hey don't worry about it!
01[17:57] <Island> Do you think we should or shouldn't publish the logs, without names of course?
[17:57] <@Dr__Cameron> Publish away my friend
01[17:57] <Island> Okay, is there any stuff that you'd like to remove?
[17:58] <@Dr__Cameron> People will find this fascinating!
[17:58] <@Dr__Cameron> Not at all man
01[17:58] <Island> I bet they do, but I think I will do it after I've tried other experiments so I don't spoil my strategies
01[17:58] <Island> I think I should have continued from my first strategy
[17:58] <@Dr__Cameron> That might have worked
01[17:59] <Island> I read "influence - science and practice" and I employed some tricks from there
[17:59] <@Dr__Cameron> Cooooool!
[17:59] <@Dr__Cameron> Links?
01[17:59] <Island> check piratebay
01[17:59] <Island> it's a book
01[18:00] <Island> Actually I wasn't able to fully prepare, I didn't do a full-fledged analysis of you beforehand
01[18:00] <Island> and didn't have enough time to brainstorm strategies
01[18:00] <Island> but I let you continue to your projects, if you still want to do the after that :)
02[18:05] * @Dr__Cameron (email@example.com) Quit (Ping timeout)
03[18:09] * Retrieving #Aibox12 modes...
Session Close: Fri Jul 04 18:17:35 2014
I have won a second game of AI box against a gatekeeper who wished to remain Anonymous.
This puts my AI Box Experiment record at 3 wins and 3 losses.
Furthermore, in the last thread I have asserted that
Rather than my loss making this problem feel harder, I've become convinced that rather than this being merely possible, it's actually ridiculously easy, and a lot easier than most people assume.
It would be quite bad for me to assert this without backing it up with a victory. So I did.
Ps: Bored of regular LessWrong? Check out the LessWrong IRC! We have cake.
Supposing you have been recruited to be the main developer on an AI project. The previous developer died in a car crash and left behind an unfinished AI. It consists of:
A. A thoroughly documented scripting language specification that appears to be capable of representing any real-life program as a network diagram so long as you can provide the following:
A.1. A node within the network whose value you want to maximize or minimize.
A.2. Conversion modules that transform data about the real-world phenomena your network represents into a form that the program can read.
B. Source code from which a program can be compiled that will read scripts in the above language. The program outputs a set of values for each node that will optimize the output (you can optionally specify which nodes can and cannot be directly altered, and the granularity with which they can be altered).
It gives remarkably accurate answers for well-formulated questions. Where there is a theoretical limit to the accuracy of an answer to a particular type of question, its answer usually comes close to that limit, plus or minus some tiny rounding error.
Given that, what is the minimum set of additional features you believe would absolutely have to be implemented before this program can be enlisted to save the world and make everyone live happily forever? Try to be as specific as possible.
I do an informal experiment testing whether LessWrong karma scores are susceptible to a form of anchoring based on the first comment posted; a medium-large effect size is found although the data does not fit the assumed normal distribution & the more sophisticated analysis is equivocal, so there may or may not be an anchoring effect.
I haven't seen any links to this on Lesswrong yet, and I just discovered it myself. It's extremely interesting, and has a lot of implications for how the way that people perceive and think of others are largely determined by their environmental context. It's also a fairly good indict of presumably common psychiatric practices, although it's also presumably outdated by now. Maybe some of you are already familiar with it, but I thought I'd mention it and post a link for those of you who aren't.
There's probably newer research on this, but I don't have time to investigate it at the moment.
In another discussion going on right now, I posted this proposal, asking for feedback on this experiment. The feedback was positive, so here goes...
When these gender discussions come up, I am often tempted to write in with my own experiences and desires. But I generally don't because I don't want to generalize from one example, or claim to be the Voice of Women, etc. However, according to the last survey, I actually AM over 1% of the females on here, and so is every other woman. (i.e. there are less than 100 of us).
My idea is to put out a call for women on LessWrong to write openly about their experiences and desires in this community, and send them to me. I will anonymize them all, and put them all up under one post.
This would have a couple of benefits, including:
Anonymity allows for open expression- When you are in the vast minority, speaking out can feel like "swimming upstream," and so may not happen very much.
Putting all the women's responses in one posts helps figure out what is/is not a problem- Because of the gender ratio, most discussions on the topic are Men Talking About what Women Want, it can be hard to figure out what women are saying on the issues, versus what men are saying women say.
The plural of anecdote is data- If one woman says X, it is an anecdote, and very weak evidence. If 10% of women say X, it is much stronger evidence.
Note that with a lot of the above issues, one of the biggest problems in figuring out what is going on isn't purposeful misogyny or anything. Just the fact that the gender ratio is so skewed can make it difficult to hear women (think picking out one voice amongst ten). The idea I'm proposing is an attempt to work around this, not an attempt to marginalize men, who may also have important things to say, but would not be the focus of this investigation.
Even with a sample size of 10 responses (approximately the amount I would say is needed for this to be useful), according to the last survey, that is 10% of the women on this site. A sizable proportion, indeed.
In the following discussion, the idea was added that fellow LWers could submit questions to the Women of LW. The women can then use these as prompts in their narratives, if they like. If you are interested in submitting questions, please read the guidelines below in "Call for Questions" before posting.
If you are interested in submitting a narrative, please read the Call for Narrative section below.
Call for Narratives
RSVP -(ETA- We have reached the needed number of pre-commitments! You do not need to fill out the form, although you are welcome to, if you like) I think we need to have at least 6 people submitting narratives to provide both the scope and the anonymity to work. So before I ask women to spend their time writing these, I would like to make sure we will get enough submissions to publish. If you are going to write a narrative, fill out this (one-minute) form in the next couple days. If we get at least 6 women pre-committed to writing a narrative, we will move forward. I will PM or email you and let you know. If, in a week, we have not had at least 6 commitments, I will close the form.
Submissions- Feel free to submit, even if you did not RSVP. (that part is just to make sure we have minimum amount of people). Just send me a pm, dropbox link, or ask for my email. I'll add more information to this, as it gets worked out.
Although the discussion that spurred this idea was about "creep" behaviors, please don't limit your responses to that subject only. Feel free to discuss any gender-related issues that you find relevant, especially responses to the questions that are posted in the thread below by your fellow LWers.
The anonymity is to provide you with the opportunity to express non-self-censored thoughts. It is ok if they are half-formed, stream-of-consciousness writings. My goal is to find out what the women on this site think, not nit-pick at the writing style. I don't want to limit submissions by saying that they have to have hours spent on formulating, organizing, and clarifying them. Write as much as you like. Don't worry about length. I will write tl;dr's if needed.
How I organize the submissions in the final post depends strongly on what is submitted to me. Separate out things that you think are identifiable to you, and I will put them in a section that is not affiliated with the rest of your submission.
Submissions are due Sept 25th!
Security- I am willing to work with people individually to make sure that their narratives aren't identifiable via writing style or little clues. Discussions that are obviously written by you (for example, talking about an incident many LWers know about) can be pulled out of your main narrative, and placed in a separate section. (reading the original exchange on the topic will clarify what I am trying to explain)
Verification- Submissions must be linked to active LW accounts (i.e. older than a week, more than 50 karma). This info will only be known to me. When possible, I would like to have validation (such as a link to a relevant post) that the account is of a female or transgendered user.
Call for Questions
Feel free to ask questions you would like answered by the women of LW. To make everything easier for us, remember the following:
1) Put questions in response to the comment entitled "Question submissions"
2)Due to the nature of this experiment, all questions will automatically assumed to be operating under Crocker's Rules.
3) Please only post one question per comment!
Upvote questions you would like to see answered. The questions with the highest amounts of upvotes are probably the most likely to be answered (based on my model of fellow LW Women).
Early in the month I announced that I was doing an experiment: I was going to start two Open Threads in January (one on the 1st, and the other on the 15th) and compare the number of comments on these threads to those of other months. My hypothesis was that having two Open Threads would raise the overall number of comments.
The reason for this experiment was recent discussions regarding how useful threads such as these were quickly buried. Well, the experiment is over now, and here are the results:
I did a search for Open Threads, and entered all the monthly ones I could find into an Excel spreadsheet. I made them into a graph, and I discovered an anomaly. There was an 8-month timespan from February 2010-September 2010, in which the comment counts were extremely high (up to 2112). Many of these threads had 2, 3, or 4 parts, because they were getting filled up.
I wasn't around LW back then, and I don't feel like reading through them all, so I don't know why this time period was so active. My current hypothesis (with P=.75) is that anomalous time period was before the Discussion section was created. I'm sure I could look it up to see if I'm right, but I bet one of the long-term LWers already knows if this is true or not, so I'll crowd-source the info. (Comment below if you know that I am correct or incorrect in my hypothesis.)
Now for the data:
The January 1-15, 2012 thread had: 122 comments
The January 16-31, 2012 thread had: 236 comments
For a grand total of: 358 comments in Jan 2012
The average Open Thread had: 448.6 comments
The median Open Thread had: 204 comments
The average OT of the past 14 mo's: 126.5 comments
So overall, the January thread had LESS than the average monthly thread, but more than the median.
IF however we look at the past 14 months (which was the end of the anomaly), then the January 2012 Open Thread had almost THREE TIMES the average.
My original hypothesis had probabilities assigned to various increases in comment rate, but I was way off because I didn't at all think it would shrink (if we include the anomaly) or that it would be 300% bigger (if we don't)
Here's a handy-dandy chart, because everything is better with pictures in!
This thought-experiment has been on my mind for a couple of days, and no doubt it's a special case of a more general problem identified somewhere by some philosopher that I haven't heard of yet. It goes like this:
You are blindfolded, and then scanned, and ninety-nine atom-for-atom copies of you are made, each blindfolded, meaning a hundred in all. To each one is explained (and for the sake of the thought experiment, you can take this explanation as true (p is approx. 1)) that earlier, a fair-coin was flipped. If it came down heads, ninety-nine out of a hundred small rooms were painted red, and the remaining one was painted blue. If it came down tails, ninety-nine out of a hundred small rooms were painted blue, and the remaining one was painted red. Now, put yourself in the shoes of just one of these copies. When asked what the probability is that the coin came down tails, you of course answer “.5”. It is now explained to you that each of the hundred copies is to be inserted into one of the hundred rooms, and will then be allowed to remove their blindfolds. You feel yourself being moved, and then hear a voice telling you you can take your blindfold off. The room you are in is blue. The voice then asks you for your revised probability estimate that the coin came down tails.
It seems at first (or maybe at second, depending on how your mind works) that the answer ought to be .99 – ninety-nine out of the hundred copies will, if they follow the rule “if red, then heads, if blue then tails”, get the answer right.
However, it also seems like the answer ought to be .5, because you have no new information to update on. You already knew that at least one copy of you would, at this time, remove their blindfold and find themselves in a blue room. What have you discovered that should allow you to revise your probability of .5 to .99?
And the answer, of course, cannot be both .5 and .99. Something has to give.
Is there something basically quite obvious that I'm missing that will resolve this problem, or is it really the mean sonofabitch it appears to be? As it goes, I'm inclined to say the probability is .5 – I'm just not quite sure why. Thoughts?
This American Life episode 450: "So Crazy It Just Might Work". The whole episode is good, but act one (6:48-42:27) is relevant to LW, about a trained scientist teaming up with an amateur on a cancer cure.
It's downloadable until 19 Nov 2011 or so, and streamable thereafter.
(Technical nit: It sounds to me like the reporter doesn't know the difference between sound and electromagnetism.)
Edit: Here's a quick rot13ed summary: Vg qbrfa'g tb jryy. Nagubal Ubyynaq frrf rkcrevzragny pbagebyf naq ercebqhpvovyvgl nf guvatf gung trg va uvf jnl. Ur frrzf gb unir gnxra [gur Penpxcbg Bssre](uggc://yrffjebat.pbz/yj/w8/gur_penpxcbg_bssre/).
First, as a physicist, I do have to point out that this article concerns mainly softer sciences, e.g. psychology, medicine, etc.
A summary of explanations for this effect:
- "The most likely explanation for the decline is an obvious one: regression to the mean. As the experiment is repeated, that is, an early statistical fluke gets cancelled out."
- "Jennions, similarly, argues that the decline effect is largely a product of publication bias, or the tendency of scientists and scientific journals to prefer positive data over null results, which is what happens when no effect is found."
- "Richard Palmer... suspects that an equally significant issue is the selective reporting of results—the data that scientists choose to document in the first place. ... Palmer emphasizes that selective reporting is not the same as scientific fraud. Rather, the problem seems to be one of subtle omissions and unconscious misperceptions, as researchers struggle to make sense of their results."
- "According to Ioannidis, the main problem is that too many researchers engage in what he calls “significance chasing,” or finding ways to interpret the data so that it passes the statistical test of significance—the ninety-five-per-cent boundary invented by Ronald Fisher. ... The current “obsession” with replicability distracts from the real problem, which is faulty design."
These problems are with the proper usage of the scientific method, not the principle of the method itself. Certainly, it's important to address them. I think the reason they appear so often in the softer sciences is that biological entities are enormously complex, and so higher-level ideas that make large generalizations are more susceptible to random error and statistical anomalies, as well as personal bias, conscious and unconscious.
For those who haven't read it, take a look at Richard Feynman on cargo cult science if you want a good lecture on experimental design.
I'm reading a popular science encyclopedia now, particularly chapters about the history of physics. The chapter goes on to evaluate the development of the concept of kinetic energy, starting with Aristotle's (grossly incorrect) explanation of a flying arrow saying that it's kept in motion by the air behind it, and then continuing to medieval impetus theory. Added: The picture below illustrates the trajectory of a flying cannonball as described by Albert of Saxony.
What struck me immediately was how drastically different from observations its predictions were. The earliest impetus theory predicted that a cannonball's trajectory was an angle: first a slanted straight line until the impetus runs out, then a vertical line of freefall. A later development added an intermediate stage, as seen on the picture to the left. At first the impetus was at full force, and would launch the cannonball in a straight line; then it would gradually give way to freefall and curve until the ball would be falling in a straight line.
While this model is closer to reality than the original prediction, I still cannot help but think... How could they deviate from observations so strongly?
Yes, yes, hindsight bias.
But if you launch a stream of water out of a slanted tube or sleeve, even if you know nothing about paraboles, you can observe that the curve it follows in the air is symmetrical. Balls such as those used for games would visibly not produce curves like depicted.
Perhaps the idea of verifying theories with experiments was only beginning to coalesce at that time, but what kind of possible thought process could lead one to publish theories so grossly out of touch with everyday observations, even those that you see without making any explicit experiments? Did the authors think something along the lines of "Well, reality should behave this way, and if it doesn't, it's its own fault"?
I came to the idea after a previous lesswrong topic discussing nihilism, and its several comments on depression and suicide. My argument is that wire heading in its extreme or complete/full form can be easily modeled as suicide, or less strongly as volitional intelligence reduction, at least given current human brain structure and the technology being underdeveloped and hence understood and more likely to lead to such end states.
I define Full Wire Heading as that which a person would not want to reverse after it 'activates' and which deletes their previous utility function or most of it. a weak definition yes, but it should be enough for the preliminary purposes of this post. A full wire head is extremely constrained, much like an infant for e.g. and although the new utility function could involve a wide range of actions, the activation of a few brain regions would be the main goal, and so they are extremely limited.
If one takes this position seriously, it follows that only one's moral standpoint on suicide or say lobotomy should govern judgments about full wire heading. This is trivially obvious of course, but to take this position as true we need to understand more about wire heading, as data is extremely lacking especially in regards to human like brains. My other question then is to what extent could such an experiment help in answering the first question?