Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/adding-and-removing-complexity-from-models/

I had a really interesting conversation with a guy about modelling information.  what I did when talking to him is in one case insist that his model be made more simple because adding more variation in the model was unhelpful, and then in another case in the same conversation, insist his model be made more complicated to account for the available information that didn't fit his model.

On reflection I realised that I had applied two opposing forces to models of information and could only vaguely explain why.  With that in mind I decided to work out what was going on.  The following is obvious, but that's why I am writing it out, so that no one else has to do the obvious thing.

Case where a model should be simplified

This all comes down to what you are measuring or describing.  If you are trying to describe something rather general, like "what impact do number of beach-goers have on the pollution at the beach?", it's probably not important what gender, age, race, time spent at the beach or socioeconomic status the beach goers are.  (With the exception of maybe socioeconomic status of the surrounding geopolitical territory), what is important is maybe two pieces of information: 

1. A measure of the number of beach goers
2. A measure of the pollution

That's it.  This would be a case for reducing the survey of beach goers down to a counter of beach goers and a daily photo of the remaining state of the beach at the end of the day (which could be compared to other similar photos).  Or even just - 3 photos, one at 9am (start), one at 1pm (peak) and one at 5pm (end).  This model needs no more moving parts.  The day you want to start using historic information to decide how many beach cleaners you want to employ, you can do that from the limited but effective data you have gathered.

Case where a model should have more moving parts added to it.

Let's continue the same example.  You have 3 photos of each day, but sometimes the 1pm photo is deserted.  Nearly no one is at the beach, and you wonder why.  It's also messing with your predictions because there is still a bit of rubbish at 5pm even though very few people were at the beach.  The model no longer explains the state of the world.  The map is wrong.  But that's okay.  We can fix it by adding more information.  You notice that most days the model is good, so there might be something going on for the other days which needs a + k factor to the equation (+k is something added in chemistry, in algebra it's sometimes called a +c as in y=mx+b+c, and physics +x, but generally adding a variable to an equation is common to all science fields).  Some new variable.

Let's say that being omniscient to our own made up examples we know that the cause is the weather.  On stormy windy rainy days - no one goes to the beach, but some rubbish washes up.  Does this match the data? almost perfectly.  Does this help explain the map?  Yes.  Is it necessary?  That depends on what you are doing with the information.  Maybe it's significant enough in this scenario that it is necessary.

Second example

The example that came up in conversation was his own internal model that there is fundamentally something different between someone who does exercise, and someone who Doesn't exercise.  I challenged this model for having too much complexity.  I argue that the model of - there is a hidden and secret moving part between does/doesn't exercise, is a model that doesn't describe the world better than a model without that moving part.  

The model does something else (and found its way into existence for this reason).  If you find yourself on one side of the model (i.e. the "I don't exercise") then you can protect yourself from attributing the failure to exercise to your own inability to do it by declaring that there is a hidden and secret moving part that prevents me from being in the other observable group.  This preserves your non-changing and let's you get away with it for a longer time.  I know this model because that is what I did.  I held this model very strongly.  And then I went out and searched for the hidden and secret moving part that I could change in order to move myself into the other group.  There was no hidden and secret moving part.  Or if there was I couldn't find it.  However, I did manage to stop holding the model that there was some hidden and secret moving part, and instead just start exercising more.

In figuring out if this model is real or a made up model to protect your own brain from being critical of itself, start to think of what the world would look like if it were true.  If there was some difference between people who do exercise and people who do not - we might see people clustered in observable groups and never be able to change between them (This is not true because we regularly see people publishing their weight loss journeys, we also regularly see people getting fatter and unhealthier, suggesting that travel in either direction is entirely possible and happens all the time).  If there were something describable it would be as obvious as different species, in fact - thinking evolutionarily - if such a thing existed, it's likely that it would have significantly shaped the state of the world already to be completely different...  Given that we can't know for sure, this might not be a very strong argument.  

If you got this far - as I did and wondered, so why can't I be in the other group - I have news for you.  You can.

• Does this pattern of models with too many moving parts sound familiar to another model you have seen in action?  
• Is there a model that you use that could do with more moving parts?

Meta: this took an hour to write.  If I were to spend more time on it, it would probably be to tighten up the examples and maybe provide more examples.  I am not sure that such time would be useful to you and am interested in if you think it will be useful.

Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/should-you-change-where-you-live-a-worked-how-to-solve-a-question/

It's not a hard question, but it potentially has a lot of moving parts.

This post is going to be two in one.  The first is whether you should move geography, the second is how I go through a problem.  In red.

First up - brainstorm ideas:

Meta-level

• Make a list of relevant factors of staying or going (then google it to check for any I missed)
• Decision making strategies

Object level

• Why did this come up?
• Make a list of things you wish were different with how you live now
• Make a list of features of your current geography
• Make a list of features that you know of in other geographies that you would like to obtain.

relevant factors

• Family
• Friends
• Relationships
• Population density
• Population diversity breakdown
• Local safety (bad neighbourhoods)
• Religion
• Politics, country-scale political climate
• Government structure, public welfare
• public transport
• cost of living
• qualify of food, variation of food, culture of food.
• exchange rate
• Normal temperature/weather/climate (rain, cloud, sun, heat, cold, wind)
• Extreme weather risk.  (i.e. cyclones, earthquakes, bushfires)
• Work (and commute)
• Salary
• Pollution (Light, Air or noise pollution)
• Residential or natural environment, parks, trees, tall buildings...
• Ocean (if you swim, or like beach culture)
• Landmarks
• native plants, animals, diseases.
• culture, art.
• difficulty in moving
• opportunity/plans
• language barrier
• public amenities
• Education
• Dwelling -> upsize, downsize, sidegrade...
• Sleep - are you getting enough of it
• postage costs

Why did this come up?

Usually you are thinking of a seeding factor; a reason why you are moving.  It will help to keep it in mind when planning other things.  Is there something wrong or pushing you out, is the current location stagnant, is something pulling you?  Write that down.    Keep it in mind.  Considering the context of the event may help you make a more informed choice, it's also why it's often hard to ask for advice without being more specific about what seems to be the difficulty.

Factors

When you move you will be exchanging your current set of these factors for a new and different set of these factors.  Sometimes you might move with your family, sometimes you might be moving across town and still have the same public transport network but just pay cheaper rent.

Your job; should you choose to accept it: work out which ones are getting better, which are getting worse, and which are staying the same.  Some of them will do both.

Example: you live in a small town with a few friends. you are moving to a big city where you know nobody but you expect to make many more friends quickly.  friends are getting both worse and better at the same time.

How?

There should be some instruction set to make it easier to actually come to an answer.  Not everyone could have automatically generated this list, and not everyone will know what to do with it now.  So what to do with the information is listed here.

1. Take the list above - best of copied to a spreadsheet, make two copies of the list, for each point; write a few words about what you have now in your current location.
2. If certain points seem irrelevant to you then don't worry.  Cross them out.
   E.g. If the weather doesn't bother you much then you can skip it.
3. For each point, out of 10, rate - how much do you care about this factor?  and also out of 10 - How well do you fulfil this need right now.  (this is where it's necessary to understand which ones you don't care about)
4. On the second copy, fill out the details of the place you want to go.  If you don't yet have a destination; look at the first list and find the things that you care about a lot with a low rating.  to start your search, make a list of places that you expect will have a high rating in those area, or search by that thing (i.e. places of religious significance).

   Of course there are ways to do this badly.  for example, as above - you live in a small town with a few friends. you are moving to a big city where you know nobody but you expect to make many more friends quickly.  friends are getting both worse and better at the same time.  If on pondering you realise that no place ever will have more friends than the place you are now, because everywhere else is foreign, then that makes it a not-great metric to go on.  However (in this example) you might benefit from considering instead where might have the potential to have good friends, (or crazy ideas like taking your friends with you)

5. Use your newly laid out knowledge as a guide on where to go and what to look for.

Consider the inverse proposal

Heuristic thinking strategies that might help you.  There are generic ones for problems and then there are questions that suit certain problems very well.  These are relatively generic but I have heard great success in applying them to moving decisions.

This is very generic.  If you are leaving a place for an obvious reason (for example political unrest), it would take a lot to convince you to stay.  This is where the idea of thinking of the inverse proposal comes in.

Example: your work has offered you a promotion.  It's $20,000 extra.  But you would have to leave your friends and family and work in a city several hours away for at least a year.

Example in reverse:  I am going to offer you a $20,000 pay cut and in exchange you get to live in a town with your friends.

*it can be hard to generate the reverse example from your own perspective.

Some people can easily say, pay "$20k just for my lousy friends, hell no".  Other people can easily say, "listen boss, $50k and you got a deal."

Is there an alternative solution

This is a fully generic question to ask.

Before you convince yourself that the factors are out of your hands, consider if you can take it into your own hands.  If you don't at least ask, you will genuinely never know if it could have gone differently.  Can you take your friends with?  Can you take the pay rise but not move for work?  Can you still have a nice lake even if you don't have an ocean?  Who knows.  At least consider it.

How can you make it easier for yourself?

This is a fully generic strategy for getting things done.

As with many decisions in life, they are big, they are hard, they are scary.  Are there things you can do to make the decision easier for yourself?

Meta: this took three hours to research and write.

Have I missed any factors?  I went through this very fast because I am trying a new productivity method; which means less polish but more posts, but also the understanding that I might have missed something.