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Model of unlosing agents

3 Stuart_Armstrong 02 August 2014 07:59AM

Some have expressed skepticism that "unlosing agents" can actually exist. So to provide an existence proof, here is a model of an unlosing agent. It's not a model you'd want to use constructively to build one, but it's sufficient for the existence result.

Let D be the set of all decisions the agent has made in the past, let U be the set of all utility functions that are compatible with those decisions, and let P be a "better than" relationship on the set of outcomes (possibly intransitive, dependent, incomplete, etc...).

By "utility functions that are compatible those decisions" I mean that an expected utility maximising agent with any u in U would reach the same decisions D as the agent actually did. Notice that U starts off infinitely large when D is empty; when the agent faces a new decision d, here is a decision criteria that leaves U non-empty:

  1. Restrict to the set of possible decision choices that would leave U non-empty. This is always possible, as any u in U would advocate for a particular decision choices du at d, and therefore choosing du would leave u in the updated U. Call this set compatible.
  2. Among those compatible choices, choose one that is the least incompatible with P, using some criteria (such as needing to do the least work to remove intransitivenesses and dependences and so on).
  3. Make that choice, and update P as in step 3, and update D and U (leaving U non-empty, as seen in step 1).
  4. Proceed.

That's the theory. In practice, we would want to restrict the utilities initially allowed into U to avoid really stupid utilities ("I like losing money to people called Rob at 15:46.34 every alternate Wednesday if the stock market is up; otherwise I don't.") When constructing the initial P and U, it could be a good start to be just looking at categories that humans natuarally express preferences between. But those are implementation details. And again, using this kind of explicit design violates the spirit of unlosing agents (unless the set U is defined in ways that are different from simply listing all u in U).

The proof that this agent is unlosing is that a) U will never be empty, and b) for any u in U, the agent will have behaved indistinguishably from a u-maximiser.

Expected utility, unlosing agents, and Pascal's mugging

19 Stuart_Armstrong 28 July 2014 06:05PM

Still very much a work in progress

EDIT: model/existence proof of unlosing agents can be found here.

Why do we bother about utility functions on Less Wrong? Well, because of results of the New man and the Morning Star, which showed that, essentially, if you make decisions, you better use something equivalent to expected utility maximisation. If you don't, you lose. Lose what? It doesn't matter, money, resources, whatever: the point is that any other system can be exploited by other agents or the universe itself to force you into a pointless loss. A pointless loss being a lose that give you no benefit or possibility of benefit - it's really bad.

The justifications for the axioms of expected utility are, roughly:

  1. (Completeness) "If you don't decide, you'll probably lose pointlessly."
  2. (Transitivity) "If your choices form loops, people can make you lose pointlessly."
  3. (Continuity/Achimedean) This axiom (and acceptable weaker versions of it) is much more subtle that it seems; "No choice is infinity important" is what it seems to say, but " 'I could have been a contender' isn't good enough" is closer to what it does. Anyway, that's a discussion for another time.
  4. (Independence) "If your choice aren't independent, people can expect to make you lose pointlessly."

 

Equivalency is not identity

A lot of people believe a subtlety different version of the result:

  • If you don't have a utility function, you'll lose pointlessly.

This is wrong. The correct result is:

  • If you don't lose pointlessly, then your decisions are equivalent with having a utility function.
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