dilaudid comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - LessWrong
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I've looked at this twice - first after reading the friends of amanda blog, wikipedia, and scanning the justice for meredith blog.
My initial probabilities were: P(AK=guilty) = .55, P(RS=guilty)=.5, P(RG=guilty)=.999, P(views coincide)=.5. Having read a few comments I initially revised the first two probabilities down - I realised I was guilty of having given a lot of weight to the rape story, and not given weight to the improbability of the "weird sex" story.
Having read more I find it hard to be sure of anything - it seems to be next to impossible to get any unbiased information on this (wikipedia contradicts friends of amanda, e.g. on the washing machine and the cleaning operation which are crucial). I would also be astonished if the Italian legal system could encourage such a high-profile miscarriage to take place. Italy is one of the most developed countries in the world. While they do have a mad president, some might say the same about some American presidents. And I have seen clear one-sided bias against the Italian legal system (e.g. the sashes worn by the jury - standard dress for jurists in Italy)
EDIT: Looked at this again. I've got to revise them to .99, .99, .999, .9 Some excerpts from the evidence on this blog - the evidence that FoA discounts looks very real to me. The only thing I find really weird is how the three could have got together. http://boards.insessiontrials.com/showpost.php?p=13695224&postcount=718
Keep in mind, this bias may not be entirely unjustified. The guilty blog quotes a major Italian newspaper (it says) which itself jokes about the Italian's system 'near biblical' slowness and forthrightly admits that it is the target of much legitimate criticism. And then there's the general black market economy of Italy, tax evasion, and dispect for the law. The Maxi Trial is an interesting example, without so far as I know, any American analogue:
(My apologies for the lengthy quoting, but does this sound like a peaceful highly law-abiding nation, with an effective and uncorrupt judicature?)
I'd be careful about generalising from the south of Italy (Sicily) to the north - there's a famous division between the two parts of the country, to the extent that many believe in formally splitting the country. And I'm certainly not interested in which system is superior, American or Italian - the answer is clearly Canadian.
What I think is interesting about this is that the decision comes down to whose judgement you trust least:
My judgement is clouded by lack of access to evidence and a lack of access to unbiased evidence. I feel I am unbiased because I have no axe to grind, but these websites expose me to every form of prejudice - I am sure it has an effect.
The jury convicted Amanda - a jury is only supposed to convict where guilt is proven beyond reasonable doubt. The jury has access to the evidence and hours to examine it. However juries do sometimes give incorrect verdicts where the victim is an attractive woman (e.g. the Jill Dando case in the UK).
The police worked hard to collect a lot of evidence. However the prosecutor appears to have a sexual obsession, and the police failed to record interviews with suspects.
The existence of a group like Friends of Amanda suggests that many people think the case is not robust. However Amanda is an attractive female, being tried in a foreign country. And of course mothers never think their children are guilty.
Meredith's parents and the British press are strongly against Amanda. The British Tabloids are not worth the paper they're written on.
All in all, I think that I have no chance of making an unbiased and accurate judgement on the first hand evidence. Based on the fact that she was found guilty in a court of law, in northern Italy, and given that there was so much evidence, much of it from Amanda herself, I think she is probably guilty. However even with 99% probability I still wouldn't convict - 1 in 100 is a reasonable doubt.
Check out Amanda's note by the way: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1570225/Transcript-of-Amanda-Knoxs-note.html
Those are very high probabilities.